政府债务规模对政府稳定影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 12:04

本文关键词：政府债务规模对政府稳定影响的实证研究　出处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：政府债务规模对政府稳定具有重要影响。通过对41个国家(地区)16年的面板数据进行回归发现:政府债务规模越高的国家(地区),政府稳定指数越低。总体而言,政府债务规模每提高1%,政府稳定指数相应降低约0.03。研究还发现:人均GDP增长率与政府稳定指数呈现显著正相关,人均GDP增长率每提高1%,政府稳定指数相应提高约0.07;失业率、腐败指数与政府稳定指数呈现负相关。为提高我国政府稳定指数,一要加强监管,严防政府债务增速过快,准确判断、防范和化解政府债务风险,牢牢守住不发生政府债务系统性风险底线。二要科学选择政策工具,加快供给侧结构性改革,稳定并维持适度的GDP增长率。三要反腐挽民心,民生换民心,严惩腐败,提高就业率,巩固和优化政府执政资源。
[Abstract]:The size of government debt has an important influence on the stability of the government. In 41 countries (regions) 16 years of panel data regression showed that the size of government debt more countries (regions), the stability index is lower. Overall, the government debt scale every 1% increase in government stability index decreased about 0.03. research that shows a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of per capita GDP government stability index, GDP per capita growth rate increased by 1%, the corresponding government stability index increased about 0.07; the unemployment rate has a negative correlation with the stability of the government corruption index index. In order to improve China's government stability index, to strengthen supervision, to prevent the excessive growth of government debt. The accurate judgment, to prevent and defuse the risk of government debt, government debt is not firmly hold the bottom line. Two systemic risk to the scientific selection of policy tools to speed up the supply side structural reform, stability and maintain a moderate increase of GDP The long rate. Three to counter corruption and save the people's heart, to change the people's livelihood, to punish the corruption, to improve the employment rate and to consolidate and optimize the government's ruling resources.

【作者单位】：湖南工学院马克思主义学院;中山大学数据科学与计算机学院软件工程与应用研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“中美地方政府治理比较研究”(14BZZ010)
【分类号】：F811.5
【正文快照】： 一、引言2008年金融危机发生后,各国政府为了应对可能发生的衰退而普遍实行积极的财政政策,政府债务增速相比以前大幅提高。快速增长的政府债务规模是一把双刃剑,一方面刺激了经济发展,另一方面规模庞大的政府债务使得债务危机隐现,严重威胁国家安全与政府稳定,例如欧洲五国(

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