模拟法律决策中的后见偏差及影响因素

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:30

本文选题：法律决策 + 后见偏差　；参考：《湖南师范大学》2010年博士论文

【摘要】：后见偏差这一术语描述了一种被普遍观察到的社会认知现象,就是人们常常只有在事件过后才是明智的。当人们了解事件的结果后,对于结果出现之前的可预见性做出判断时,往往会成为后见偏差的牺牲品。相对于结果发生之前做出的可预见性,他们存在夸大已知结果的趋向。拥有已知结果的优势,人们不仅认为特定的结果是更加可预知的,而且更有可能回忆起与所知结果相一致的事件信息,并认定这些信息对于事件结果的发生是更有影响力的。同时,人们会简化,不考虑,或者甚至会遗忘与所知结果不一致的事件信息。法律决策是在法律案件的审判过程中,与案件有关的当事人(证人或专家),以及案件的审判人员(法官、陪审员)依据事实、证据和法律规定,对案件当事人的行为做出自我判定,从而形成具有法律效力的决策结果。由于当前法律审判的实质是,在一个事件结果已经发生后去评判罪行或者责任,所以后见效应能够从许多途径对法律决策者们施加其影响。在法庭审判中的法官和陪审员,往往面临着一个艰难的挑战,他们必须忽略结果对他们所产生的后见效应的影响,以一种公平的方式来判决被告在结果出现之前的行为是否有过错。他们能否做到不考虑结果的信息?或者对于结果的了解是否会使他们的决策产生偏见?这些是进行本研究的初衷所在。基于当前对于后见偏差影响因素的实验研究结果,并结合法律决策的特殊性,本实验研究采用假定型设计,通过三个3×3和一个2×3的两因素被试间实验,分别选择了不同事件结果、消极结果严重程度、间接自我相关、心理控制源,这四个客观以及主观方面的因素作为对于模拟法律决策中后见偏差影响因素的考察对象。同时,通过策略的运用,进一步探究所选取的消除后见效应的两个策略在不同案件以及不同因素影响下的有效性。研究结果表明： 1、后见偏差不仅存在于作者之前实验研究所证实的中国被试购买行为的决策判断中,也存在于具体情境的模拟法律决策中,而且具有一定的稳固性。 2、中立、积极与消极的不同事件结果会使模拟法律决策中的后见效应产生差异。模拟法官在事件消极结果情境下对案件做出的决策比在中立结果情境下所做的案件决策产生出了更大的后见偏差,而在事件积极结果情境下所做出的决策结果则出现了更少的后见偏差。 3、消极结果的严重程度对后见偏差的大小有着深刻的影响力,更严重的消极结果会产生出更大程度的偏见。后见偏差的强度随着事件消极结果严重程度的增加而显著增强,在消极结果的严重损害程度下,产生出最大的后见偏差。 4、在模拟法律决策中,案件的间接自我相关性也会使后见效应对于被告过错的认定产生不同的影响。与积极相关和无相关的决策结果相比,在消极相关情境下更多的模拟法官认为法律案件中被告的行为存在过错,且所评定的过错严重程度更高。 5、不同心理控制源也是导致模拟法律决策中的后见偏差存在差异的影响因素。相对于外控型心理控制源个体,内控型心理控制源个体更加认定被告的行为存在过错,由此产生出相对更大的后见偏差。 6、在不同法律案件,以及不同因素影响下,提醒决策者后见效应的指导策略,以及迫使决策者考虑其他可能性结果消极影响的分散注意策略,在减少模拟法律决策中后见偏差的有效性上都是非常显著的。但这两种消除后见效应的策略之间均无显著性差异。
[Abstract]:The term bias describes a universally observed social cognitive phenomenon that people are often wise only after an event. When people understand the results of the event, they tend to be the victims of the backward view when judging the predictability before the results appear. Predictability, they have a tendency to exaggerate known results. With the advantage of known results, people not only think that a particular result is more predictable, but also more likely to recall event information that is consistent with the known results, and that the information is more influential to the occurrence of the event. Consider, or even forget, event information that is inconsistent with the known result.
In the course of the trial of a legal case, a legal decision is a case related to the parties (witnesses or experts), as well as the judges (judges, jurors) of the case, according to the facts, evidence and legal provisions, to make a self determination of the actions of the parties in the case, thus forming the result of the decision with legal effect. It is, when the result of an event has occurred, to judge a crime or responsibility, so the effect can be applied to the legal decision-makers in many ways. The judges and jurors in the court trial often face a difficult challenge, and they have to ignore the effects of the results on their post effect. The purpose of this study is to decide whether the defendant's behavior is at fault before the result appears in a fair way. Can they do not consider the results or whether the understanding of the results will make their decisions biased.
Based on the results of the experimental research on the influencing factors of the rear view deviation and the particularity of the legal decision, the experimental study adopts the false stereotype design. Through the experiments of three 3 x 3 and a 2 x 3 factor, the results of different events, the negative result seriousness, the indirect self correlation, the psychological control source, and the four guests are selected. View and subjective factors as an object of investigation for the influence factors of the rear view deviation in the simulation of legal decision-making. At the same time, through the use of strategy, we further explore the effectiveness of the two strategies that have been selected to eliminate the post effect effect under the influence of different cases and different factors.
The results of the study show that:
1, the rear view deviation not only exists in the decision judgment of the Chinese trial purchase behavior confirmed by the author's previous experimental research, but also exists in the simulation legal decision of the specific situation, and has certain stability.
2, neutral, positive and negative results will make the difference in the post effect in the simulated legal decision. The decision making in the case of the case in the negative result situation of the event is greater than that in the case decision made in the neutral result situation, and the decision made in the positive result situation of the event is made. The result showed less deviation.
3, the severity of the negative results has a profound influence on the size of the rear view deviation, and the more serious negative results will produce a greater degree of prejudice. The intensity of the rear view deviation increases significantly with the increase of the severity of the event negative results, and the maximum apparent deviation is produced under the severe damage of the negative results.
4, in the simulation of legal decision-making, the indirect self relevance of the case will also make a different effect on the identification of the defendant's fault. Compared with the positive and unrelated decision results, more simulated judges think the defendant's behavior in the legal case is fault and the fault is seriously assessed in the negative related situation. The degree is higher.
5, different psychological control sources are also the influence factors that lead to the difference in the apparent deviation in the simulated legal decision-making. Compared with the external controlled psychological control source individual, the internal controlled psychological control source individual is more cognizant of the defendant's behavior fault, resulting in a relatively larger deviation.
6, under the influence of different legal cases and different factors, the guiding strategy of reminding the decision-makers to see the effect and the decentralized attention strategy that compel the decision-makers to consider the negative effects of other possibilities are unusual in the effectiveness of reducing the bias in the simulated legal decision. But the two strategies to eliminate the post effect effect There was no significant difference between the two groups.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D90-054

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