合作博弈—气候变化国际问题的理论探究

发布时间：2018-04-20 20:19

本文选题：气候变化 + 京都议定书　；参考：《上海交通大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今气候变化问题既逐步形成了一些主流理念与规则,也在不断膨胀与争论;既被视为全球性问题,也越来越多地带有国家、集团利益的色彩;既是环境问题,也不断地被赋予政治、经济、哲学、科学技术等因素。总之,气候变化问题已是目前各国乃至整个国际社会重点关切的重要问题。随着哥本哈根会议的黯淡落幕,后京都议定书时代气候变化的谈判何去何从,将是大家无法回避,必须去正视的议题。在此承上启下之际,通过博弈论来研究气候变化国际公约及其谈判进程,能更好地揭开谈判表面纷乱庞杂的面纱,深刻剖析影响谈判的种种因素,指出公约成功与失败的关键因素,并为未来谈判的走向和中国在谈判中的策略选择提供一点建议。本文从非合作博弈理论引入,提出非合作博弈在环境公共治理中“零和”的弊端,然后通过气候变化国际公约及谈判实例的佐证,指出了实现“共赢”的合作博弈的必要性及其途径。最后,通过与《蒙特利尔议定书》的比较分析,揭示了影响气候变化合作博弈的三大具体因素:科技、履约机制和公众舆论,并通过这些影响因素对中国未来谈判的选择给予些许启示。
[Abstract]:Today's climate change issue has evolved into a number of mainstream ideas and rules, and is also expanding and debating; it is seen as a global problem and increasingly has a national and group interest color; it is an environmental issue. They are also constantly given political, economic, philosophical, scientific and technological factors. In short, climate change has become an important issue of concern to countries and the international community as a whole. With the end of Copenhagen, the future of climate change negotiations in the post-Kyoto era will be an unavoidable issue that must be addressed. In this connection, by studying the international convention on climate change and its negotiation process through game theory, we can better unveil the complicated surface of the negotiations and profoundly analyze the factors that affect the negotiations. This paper points out the key factors of the success and failure of the convention, and provides some suggestions for the future negotiation and the strategic choice of China in the negotiation. Based on the theory of non-cooperative game, this paper puts forward the malpractice of "zero sum" of non-cooperative game in environmental public governance, and then proves by the international convention on climate change and the example of negotiation. This paper points out the necessity and ways to realize the "win-win" cooperative game. Finally, through comparative analysis with the Montreal Protocol, the paper reveals three specific factors that affect the cooperative game on climate change: science and technology, compliance mechanism and public opinion. And through these influencing factors to China's future negotiations to give some inspiration.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：P467

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