城镇化下我国北方省份集中供热耗煤预测及节能潜力分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 02:11

本文关键词：城镇化下我国北方省份集中供热耗煤预测及节能潜力分析　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化是社会、经济发展的必然选择，我国正处于城镇化建设快速发展的关键时期，在不放缓“量”的同时,加强对“质”的提升,对城镇化下亟待解决的问题的研究具有较强的指导和现实意义。集中供热是北方省份人们生活安定与和谐的保障，是民生建设的重要内容，且集中供热的优劣关系到能源、环境和城市建设等方面，集中供热耗煤量在能源消费结构中占重要的比例，2011年我国集中供热耗煤就占了全国总生活用煤的35%。本文对城镇化下集中供热耗煤的预测分析研究，，提供了对城镇化下的集中供热耗煤量的预测方法,并对不同情境下的城镇化的集中供热耗煤有一个直观、量化的呈现，这对集中供热新工程的建立，对供热所耗较为清洁的能源的选择和消耗量的估算也是一个借鉴和参考。本文从我国城镇化和北方省份集中供热的现实分析出发，利用计量经济学的方法从众多影响供热耗煤的因素中得到最显著的因素，然后从人口数量的角度对住宅面积和非住宅集中供热面积进行预测研究。对住宅供热面积的研究从城镇化的要求和特点着手，把城镇中的人口分为四种，并各自根据演化规律利用灰色系统、指数增长模型、半指数增长模型Logistic模型等方法对人口数量进行统计校准和预测，进而对集中供热面积进行预测。并通过对比模型预测值和现实数据的差值，分析查找原因，以2011年为基年进行调整优化。在此基础上进一步通过对耗煤计量公式的解析，对产暖期天数、建筑物耗量指标、供暖锅炉和管网效率分析得出现实未来二十多年的集中供热耗煤量，并通过调整棚户区改造计划和农村人口向城镇迁移速率来预测不同情景下对采暖耗煤量的影响。最后对所发现的问题做出说明和建议，对可能的创新点和不足做出总结和展望。本文的主要结论有：集中供热的最主要的影响因素是集中供热面积，气候、管网长度和能源利用率的影响并不显著。集中供热面积中非住宅面积受到城镇人口数量的显著影响，住宅面积则依赖于对城镇化下棚户区居民、农村向城镇的转移人口、城镇原老楼房的居民和城镇暂住人口的预测。城镇化的建设会带来集中供热面积的增加，2011年全国集中供热面积为4713百万平方米，至2025年达到11957百万平方米，平均每年增长765.73百万平米。集中供热面积的增加带动了集中供热耗煤的增加，能源的需求量的增大，在标准集中供热耗煤情境下，2011年全国集中供热耗煤为5860万吨，2025年达到29126万吨，特别是在加快棚户区改造计划，在2017年各省均完成棚户区改造时，集中供热耗煤量在标准情境下至2025年会增加68.63万吨，农村人口向城镇转移每年增加20%的情境下全国的集中供热耗煤量在2025年将会增加18569万吨。城镇化在提高了人们生活质量，带来了能源需求增加的同时也会在某些方面由于规模效应节约了能源，减少了对环境的压力，存在着较大的节能潜力。大规模区域锅炉房、热点联产取代家庭式的、散落的、效率较低的小锅炉房的供热将大大提高了能源的使用效率。对比三种情境下集中供热耗煤做出预测和比较分析，可以得出在节能前后北方各地单位面积的节煤量，北方省份仅2011年就可节约1500万吨标准煤，节能后的情境比现实情境更是可以节约6135万吨。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the inevitable choice of social and economic development, China is in a critical period of rapid development of urbanization, in the slow "quantity" at the same time, strengthen the improvement of "quality", and has strong guidance and practical significance of the research on Urbanization under the urgent problem. The central heating is the northern provinces people live in peace and harmony of security, is an important content of the construction of people's livelihood, and central heating directly related to energy, environment and city construction, heating coal consumption accounted for an important proportion in the energy consumption structure, research analysis and forecast in 2011 China's central heating coal consumption accounted for the total coal consumption of life on the urbanization of central heating coal 35%. the prediction method provides a centralized heating of urbanization under the coal consumption, and central heating in different situations of urbanization coal consumption has an intuitive, quantitative This is a reference to the establishment of a new central heating project and the selection of more clean energy for heating and the estimation of the consumption.
This paper from the reality of China's urbanization and the northern provinces of central heating, the use of econometric methods are the most significant factors from many factors affect the heating coal consumption, and then from the population of residential and non residential area of central heating area of the forecast. Research on residential heating area from the requirements of urbanization and the characteristics of the town's population is divided into four types, and according to their respective evolution by grey system, exponential growth model, semi exponential growth model Logistic model for statistical calibration and prediction of the population, and to predict the central heating area. By comparing the difference of model predictive value and reality data analysis, find the reasons, to 2011 as the base year of adjustment and optimization. On the basis of further analysis of the coal consumption measurement formula, on the production of warm period construction Building materials consumption index, heating boiler and pipe network efficiency analysis of central heating to the real future more than 20 years of coal consumption, and by adjusting the shantytowns plan and the rural population to urban migration rate to predict the effects of different scenarios of heating coal consumption. Finally make the instructions and suggestions on how to solve the problems, make summary and outlook of the possible innovation and deficiency.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the main factors of central heating effect is central heating area, climate, influence the length of pipeline and energy utilization rate is not obvious. The central heating area in the non residential area affected by the urban population, the residential area is dependent on the shantytowns of urbanization, the rural population transfer to the town of old buildings, forecast of urban residents and urban floating population. The construction of urbanization will bring about an increase in central heating area, in 2011 the national central heating area of 4 billion 713 million square meters, in 2025 to reach 11 billion 957 million square meters, an average annual increase of 765 million 730 thousand square meters. Increasing the central heating area increased to heating coal consumption, increasing energy demand, in the standard central heating coal consumption situation, in 2011 the national central heating coal consumption was 58 million 600 thousand tons, to 291 million 260 thousand tons in 2025, Especially in accelerating the shantytowns plan, in 2017 the provinces have completed the shantytowns, central heating coal consumption in the standard context to 2025 will increase to 686 thousand and 300 tons, the annual transfer of rural population to urban central heating increased 20% of the country's situation, coal consumption increased 185 million 690 thousand tons in 2025.
Urbanization in improving the quality of people's life, also brought increased demand for energy will be in some aspects because of scale effect and save energy, reduce the pressure on the environment, there is a great potential of energy saving. The large-scale regional boiler, cogeneration replace family, scattered, small boiler room heating and low efficiency. Will greatly improve the efficiency of energy use. A comparison of three situations of central heating coal consumption and make a comparative analysis of the prediction, it can be concluded that in the amount of coal saving energy before and after the north around the unit area, the northern provinces in 2011 alone can save 15 million tons of standard coal, energy saving after the situation is more than the real situation can save 61 million 350 thousand tons.

【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU995

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