建设工程施工项目目标成本预测及成本控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 11:40

本文关键词：建设工程施工项目目标成本预测及成本控制研究　出处：《兰州交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来，随着改革开放的大力发展与国民经济的不断提升，我国施工企业在提高生产能力的同时也产生了新的生产需求，然而我国项目管理理论和实践的发展却依然非常缓慢。传统的项目成本管理方式和体制在当今项目管理中暴露出了很多的不足，这些不足已经严重的阻碍了我国建设事业的蓬勃发展，制约着我国经济的提高，因此，新型的施工项目成本管理方法、模式，值得我们仔细地研究和探讨。本文在对建设工程施工项目目标成本管理理论进行深入研究的基础上，，尝试性的对回归分析法和贝叶斯网络在项目成本管理中的应用进行了研究，借助回归分析法在历史数据信息提炼方面的优势及贝叶斯网络强大的不确定性问题的处理能力，分别对工程项目成本的预测和控制进行了探讨，并通过工程实例验证了两种方法在成本管理中的有效性，希望对改善和提高施工企业成本管理水平提供帮助。首先，本文在国内外研究现状的基础上，详细介绍了目标成本理论和成本控制理论，并分析了传统项目成本管理理论的不足。根据我国项目成本管理领域的现状，提出了本文要研究的问题。其次，针对我国项目成本管理中的不同问题，分别提出了新的解决途径。在成本预测方面，引入回归分析法，介绍了回归分析法的相关理论及运用该方法建立成本预测模型的一般步骤。回归分析法具有客观性强、操作简单、数据信息提取准确等优点，同时它还具有可重复性，即建模过程具有一般性。因此，运用回归分析法的建模过程可以在建筑企业之间进行推广，具有一定的实际意义。在成本控制方面，针对传统控制方法在事前控制环节的薄弱，引入贝叶斯网理论，借助于贝叶斯网络的诊断功能，即根据结果寻找原因的能力。在施工前先假设目标成本出现变动，然后根据假设找出影响成本的因素，通过对成本影响因素的控制达到对成本进行事前控制的目的。最后，结合实际案例，对上述模型进行了具体应用，并证明了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the vigorous development of reform and opening up and the continuous improvement of the national economy, the construction enterprises in China not only improve the production capacity, but also produce new production demand. However, the development of project management theory and practice in our country is still very slow. The traditional project cost management mode and system have exposed a lot of deficiencies in today's project management. These deficiencies have seriously hindered the vigorous development of our country's construction cause and restricted the improvement of our country's economy. Therefore, the new construction project cost management method, the pattern, is worth our careful study and discussion. Based on the deep research on the theory of target cost management of construction project, this paper tries to study the application of regression analysis and Bayesian network in project cost management. With the help of the advantage of regression analysis in the extraction of historical data and the ability of Bayesian network to deal with uncertain problems, the prediction and control of project cost are discussed respectively. The effectiveness of the two methods in cost management is verified by an engineering example. It is hoped that the two methods can help to improve the cost management level of construction enterprises. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of target cost and the theory of cost control on the basis of domestic and foreign research status. According to the current situation in the field of project cost management in China, the problems to be studied in this paper are put forward. Secondly, aiming at the different problems of project cost management in our country, this paper puts forward a new way to solve the problem, and introduces the regression analysis method in cost forecasting. This paper introduces the related theory of regression analysis and the general steps of establishing cost prediction model by using this method. Regression analysis has the advantages of objectivity, simple operation, accurate data information extraction and so on. At the same time, it has repeatability, that is, the modeling process is general. Therefore, the modeling process using regression analysis method can be popularized among construction enterprises, which has certain practical significance. In the aspect of cost control, aiming at the weakness of the traditional control method in advance control, Bayesian network theory is introduced, with the help of the diagnostic function of Bayesian network. That is, the ability to find the cause according to the result. Before the construction, the target cost is assumed to change, and then the factors that affect the cost are found out according to the assumption. The purpose of controlling the cost in advance is achieved by controlling the influencing factors of cost. Finally, combined with practical cases, the above model is applied and the validity of the model is proved.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU723.3

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