建设工程施工进度BIM预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 00:55

本文关键词： 施工进度预测模型 BIM技术影响因素可靠性施工控制　出处：《武汉理工大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在工程项目管理实践中，施工进度管理直接关系到项目的经济效益，是项目管理的核心指标之一。由于施工过程的复杂性、动态性、不确定性等原因，使得工程实施中进度的预测与控制难度极大。在施工进度的实际管理中，合理考虑复杂多影响因素影响，能充分预测施工计划的不确定性，更加准确地评估工期风险，从而更加有效地控制施工进度。本文旨在通过对进度复杂影响因素的概率统计分析，构建施工进度复杂因素的预测模型，提出基于BIM技术的进度预测集成系统，提高施工过程中短期工作复杂变化的定量、精细进度预测水平，以及整体施工进度的预测分析水平。本文的主要工作如下：首先，分析了BIM技术与精益建造LC理论的特点与异同，探讨了BIM技术和精益建造LC协同应用模式，提出BIM和LC关键技术集成方法。其次，施工进度复杂影响因素随机分析。总结了施工工期的确定方法，基于计算机Dijkstra算法，改进网络计划计算系统，，实现施工进度六个时间参数的自动计算和关键线路的自动识别计算，弥补现有施工进度软件应用系统不足。深入分析施工进度复杂影响因素的不确定性，提出了施工进度影响因素的概率统计方法。第三，采用概率论、数理统计方法、可靠性理论、项目管理理论等，分析施工计划进度和预测实际进度的复杂关系，研究了单因素影响的施工进度随机预测模型。包括：材料供应因素和管理水平因素的确定性单因素目标进度预测模型、随机性单因素目标进度预测模型、单因素目标进度随机性预测模型。同时建立多种同类单因素进度预测模型。第四，研究了多因素影响的整体进度预测模型。考虑随机性因素目标进度、因素目标进度随机性两种情况下，建立整个施工网络计划目标进度矩阵和进度偏移矩阵，得出整个施工网络计划预测进度矩阵和矩阵范数。同时提出工期优化控制方法。第五，提出施工进度BIM技术预测集成方法，进行集成系统架构，探讨集成系统对单元工作进度和整体施工进度的影响因素识别、工期预测、实际进度定量预测方法，结合BIM技术平台实现施工进度的有效控制。最后，工程案例分析，验证了本研究成果的可行性与适用性。研究结果表明，本文研究方法能够合理估计进度计划的不确定性，根据施工进度影响因素变化对进度计划进行动态监控，在工程实践中有着广泛的应用前景和巨大的应用价值。
[Abstract]:In the practice of project management, construction schedule management is directly related to the economic benefits of the project, is one of the core indicators of project management, because of the complexity of the construction process, dynamic, uncertainty and other reasons. It is very difficult to forecast and control the progress of the project. In the actual management of the construction schedule, the uncertainty of the construction plan can be fully predicted by considering the influence of complex and multiple factors reasonably. More accurate evaluation of the duration of the risk, thus more effective control of construction progress. This paper aims to build a prediction model of complex factors of construction schedule by analyzing the probability and statistics of the factors affecting the progress of the complex schedule, and propose a progress forecasting integrated system based on BIM technology. To improve the quantitative and precise prediction level of the complex changes in the short and middle work during the construction process, as well as the prediction and analysis level of the overall construction progress. The main work of this paper is as follows: Firstly, the characteristics and differences between BIM technology and Lean building LC theory are analyzed, the BIM technology and Lean build LC cooperative application mode are discussed, and the integration method of BIM and LC key technologies is put forward. Secondly, random analysis of complex factors of construction schedule. The method of determining construction period is summarized, and the network planning calculation system is improved based on computer Dijkstra algorithm. To realize the automatic calculation of six time parameters of construction schedule and the automatic identification and calculation of key lines, to make up for the deficiency of the existing software application system of construction progress, and to deeply analyze the uncertainty of complex factors affecting construction schedule. The probabilistic statistical method of influencing factors of construction schedule is put forward. Thirdly, using probability theory, mathematical statistics method, reliability theory, project management theory and so on, the complex relationship between construction schedule and actual progress is analyzed. The stochastic prediction model of construction schedule influenced by single factor is studied, including the deterministic single-factor target schedule prediction model of material supply factor and management level factor, and the stochastic single-factor target schedule forecasting model. The stochastic prediction model of single factor target schedule is established, and a variety of similar single factor schedule prediction models are established. In 4th, the overall schedule prediction model of multi-factors is studied. Considering the randomness of target progress and the randomness of factor target progress, the paper studies the overall schedule prediction model of multi-factors. The target schedule matrix and schedule offset matrix of the whole construction network plan are established, and the prediction schedule matrix and matrix norm of the whole construction network plan are obtained. At the same time, the optimal control method for the construction period is proposed. 5th, put forward the integrated method of BIM technology prediction of construction progress, carry on the integrated system structure, discuss the influence factor identification of the integrated system to the unit work progress and the whole construction progress, forecast the duration of the construction period. The method of quantitative prediction of actual progress is combined with BIM technology platform to realize the effective control of construction progress. Finally, the project case analysis verifies the feasibility and applicability of the research results. The research results show that the method can reasonably estimate the uncertainty of the progress plan. According to the change of the influencing factors of construction schedule, the dynamic monitoring of schedule plan has a wide application prospect and great application value in engineering practice.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU722;TU17

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