地震荷载等效循环周数的预测模型

发布时间：2018-03-01 08:00

本文关键词： 等效循环周数混合效应模型地震荷载非线性回归分析　出处：《岩土工程学报》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：荷载等效循环周数的计算在分析地震动力响应中有重要作用。目前等效循环周数的计算方法大多是建立在累计损伤理论的基础上,这些方法一般需要已知地震时程曲线,而预测分析时并不知道实际的地震时程曲线,且等效转换处理较麻烦。为了解决以上问题,统计了涵盖不同震中距级别和震级级别的296条水平地震记录,计算出作用于相对密实度为45%的砂土的等效循环周数。基于统计分析的非线性混合效应模型,建立了单向及双向地震荷载等效循环周数与震级和震中距之间的预测模型。采用回归分析中常用的p值检验法及残差分布方法对预测模型进行检验,结果表明预测误差在合理范围内。通过实测值与预测值比较,证明了预测模型在统计意义上的可行性与准确性。
[Abstract]:The calculation of the equivalent cyclic cycles of loads plays an important role in the analysis of seismic dynamic response. At present, most of the calculation methods of the equivalent cyclic cycles are based on the cumulative damage theory, and these methods generally need to know the earthquake time history curve. In order to solve the above problem, 296 horizontal seismic records covering different epicentral distance and magnitude are counted. The equivalent cycle cycles acting on sand with relative compactness of 45% are calculated. Based on the nonlinear mixed effect model of statistical analysis, A prediction model between the number of equivalent cycles of unidirectional and bidirectional seismic loads and the magnitude and epicentral distance is established. The prediction model is tested by using the p-value test method and the residual distribution method, which are commonly used in regression analysis. The results show that the prediction error is within a reasonable range. The feasibility and accuracy of the prediction model in statistical sense are proved by comparing the measured values with the predicted values.
【作者单位】：同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室;新加坡国立大学土木与环境工程系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41372271)
【分类号】：TU435;P315.9

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