二商迎宾厂房建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 08:44

本文选题：房地产项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于企业的扩建对工业地产的需求增长很快,工业厂房的出租业务有很大的上升空间,因此目前有很多的地产开发商更加倾向于将工业地产作为其新的开发标的。天津二商迎宾肉类食品有限公司肉制品深加工及物流基地项目一期工程,共15个单体建筑,本文对二商迎宾厂房建设项目实施过程中的风险管理进行了研究,对其中可能出现的风险要素进行识别、分析、规避,提出合理的风险管理对策,以保证该项目的顺利实施。本文主要分为四大部分。第一部分为理论分析,首先从风险的定义引生到厂房建设项目风险管理的内涵,并基于本论文基于业主方的视角,详细分析了厂房建设项目业主方的特点及其与其他利益方的关系。然后,重点分析了项目风险管理理论的发展历程及我国当前在此领域的研究成果综述,最后对风险评估方法进行了概述,简单介绍了层次分析法、主观评分法、敏感性分析法、蒙特卡罗法等,为后文在风险评估实践时进行风险评估方法的选择奠定了基础。第二部分为项目风险识别。文章通过对二商迎宾厂房建设项目的分析和概述,得出给业主方带来风险的因素有五大类:相关主体风险,经济风险、自然风险、技术风险和管理风险。然后有细分成了15项具体的风险指标,形成了一个较为完善的风险指标体系,不仅帮助二商迎宾肉类食品有限公司在后续的风险管理中有了控制目标,也为相关类似的建设项目业主们提供了很好的参考。第三部分为本文在对较常用的几种风险评估方法进行了比较后,结合二商迎宾厂房建设项目的具体实践情况,选择了定性定量相结合的层次分析法来对该项目进行风险分析计算。根据对各个指标项的权重计算结果,二商迎宾厂房建设项目业主方面临较高的管理风险中的组织协调风险,相关主体风险中的承包商带来的风险和承包商单位与监理单位共谋带来的风险,以及经济风险中的资金周转不畅风险等四方面风险威胁。第四部分为提出风险控制措施建议。本文从二商迎宾厂房建设项目的开发业主角度,对该项目进行风险评价分析与控制管理的研究。首先在理论方面,本文将层次分析法合理有效的运用于风险识别过程,能为其他风险管理研究提供可借鉴的思路和方法,一定程度上发展和丰富了建设工程风险管理方面的理论与技术,具有一定的理论意义。其次在实践方面,本文通过对天津二商迎宾厂房建设项目业主方可能将面临的风险进行分析,按照风险管理的流程,主要从风险识别、风险评价及风险应对三个方面进行全面的风险管理研究,帮助业主有效规避项目风险,消除或降低可能的损失,确保项目顺利实施,具有重要的实践意义。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid growth of the demand for industrial real estate for the expansion of enterprises, there is a great room for the rental of industrial factories to rise. Therefore, at present, many real estate developers are more inclined to take industrial property as their new development target. Tianjin er Shang Yingbin Meat Food Co., Ltd., phase one of the deep processing and logistics base project of meat products, has 15 individual buildings. In this paper, the risk management in the process of the construction project of the second commercial welcome factory building is studied, and the possible risk elements are identified, analyzed, circumvented, and reasonable risk management countermeasures are put forward. In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the project, this paper is mainly divided into four parts. The first part is theoretical analysis. Firstly, from the definition of risk to the connotation of risk management of plant construction project, and based on this paper based on the perspective of owner, In this paper, the characteristics of owner and the relationship between owner and other stakeholders are analyzed in detail. Then, the development of project risk management theory and the summary of current research results in this field in China are analyzed. Finally, the risk assessment methods are summarized, including AHP, subjective score, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo method, etc. The paper lays a foundation for the selection of risk assessment methods in the practice of risk assessment. The second part is project risk identification. It is concluded that there are five kinds of risk factors to the owner: related subject risk, economic risk, natural risk, technical risk and management risk. A relatively perfect risk index system was formed, which not only helped Ershang Yingbin Meat Food Co., Ltd. to have a control goal in the subsequent risk management, It also provides a good reference for the owners of similar construction projects. The third part is the comparison of several risk assessment methods commonly used in this paper. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, is selected to analyze and calculate the risk of the project. According to the weight calculation results of each index item, the owners of the construction project face higher risk of organization coordination in the management risk. The risks brought by the contractor and the collusion between the contractor and the supervision unit in the risk of the relevant subject, As well as four aspects of risk threats, such as the risk of capital flow in economic risk. 4th part is to put forward some suggestions for risk control. From the angle of the development and owner of the construction project of the second commercial factory building, First of all, in theory, this paper applies AHP to risk identification process reasonably and effectively, which can provide some ideas and methods for other risk management research. To a certain extent, it has developed and enriched the theory and technology of construction project risk management, which has certain theoretical significance. Secondly, in practice, Based on the analysis of the risk that the owner of Tianjin second Shang Yingbin factory building may face, according to the process of risk management, this paper makes a comprehensive study on risk management from three aspects: risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response. It is of great practical significance to help the owner avoid the project risk effectively, eliminate or reduce the possible losses and ensure the smooth implementation of the project.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71;F426.82

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