基于灰箱模型的中国城市内涝弹性评价

发布时间：2018-04-08 13:14

本文选题：城市内涝　切入点：弹性　出处：《城市问题》2015年04期

【摘要】：基于城市内涝弹性的概念和内涵,建立了灰箱模型,借助主成分分析法构建了包括抵御能力、恢复能力和适应能力三个维度的城市内涝弹性评价体系,对全国238个地级及以上城市进行了内涝弹性评价,运用相关性分析方法对评价结果进行了分析。结果表明:在2008-2009年期间,238个城市中仅有29个城市未发生内涝;内涝弹性强、弱的城市呈集群分布,珠三角、长三角城市群城市内涝弹性较强,京津冀城市群、关中城市群内涝弹性较弱;城市内涝弹性与城市社会经济发展水平呈显著负相关关系,城市立交桥区域是城市内涝高发区;建成区内的城市绿地系统并未有效改善城市内涝弹性;城市排水与防洪堤不但没有缓解城市内涝,还侵蚀了城市内涝弹性。
[Abstract]:Based on the concept and connotation of urban waterlogging elasticity, the grey box model is established, and the evaluation system of urban waterlogging elasticity is constructed by principal component analysis (PCA), which includes three dimensions: resilience, resilience and adaptability.In this paper, the waterlogging elasticity of 238 cities with prefectural level and above is evaluated, and the evaluation results are analyzed by using the method of correlation analysis.The results show that in 2008-2009, only 29 of 238 cities did not have waterlogging, the waterlogging elasticity was strong, the weak cities were clustered distribution, the cities of Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta had strong elasticity of waterlogging, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.The waterlogging elasticity of Guanzhong urban agglomeration is weak, the urban waterlogging elasticity is negatively correlated with the level of urban social and economic development, and the urban overpass area is a high incidence area of urban waterlogging.The urban green space system has not effectively improved the urban waterlogging elasticity, and the urban drainage and flood prevention levees have not only failed to alleviate the urban waterlogging, but also eroded the urban waterlogging elasticity.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院;北京大学建筑与景观设计学院;北京大学景观设计学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51078004)——全球气候变化背景下中国城市水适应能力建设的景观途径
【分类号】：TU998.4;F299.2

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