城市防灾应急避难场所规划支持方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 12:59

本文选题：城市防灾规划 + 应急避难场所　；参考：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：近年来各种自然灾害的频发使得城市安全问题受到越来越多的重视。紧急情况发生以及灾后恢复阶段,应急避难所就成为较安全并能保障人们基本生活的过渡性场所。将受灾人群疏散至安全避难场所的效率直接影响救灾减灾的效果,同时也是衡量城市应对紧急突发事件能力的一个重要指标。合理规划应急避难场所将有利于提升城市防灾减灾的效率,因此,科学地分配和配置城市应急避难场所,及时疏散避难人员就显得极为必要和迫切。在我国,传统的城市规划方法已难以满足城市发展的需要,相关领域新技术手段的引入为城市规划的发展注入了新的活力。快速的城市化必然伴随着大规模的新城开发与旧城更新,这就要求规划过程中快速更新信息以进行有效的规划支持。规划支持系统的一般发展由于需要相当长的周期,较难满足中国快速发展中城市规划更新的需要；同时,城市规划工作异常复杂,任务繁多,难以开发一个满足规划阶段各种不同需要的规划支持系统。因此,针对城市规划过程中不同阶段、不同层次的规划需要而建立的规划支持方法体系更能够适应城市快速发展及规划编制的需要。本文在规划支持系统思想的基础上,针对城市防灾规划中的应急避难场所规划,将相关的定量分析、决策技术方法进行综合,建立城市应急避难场所规划的支持方法体系,以支持我国城市防灾规划中应急避难场所的空间布局规划。具体地,本研究将定量分析方法、多准则决策等技术运用到应急避难场所规划当中,为城市应急避难场所规划的编制提供理论和方法支持,具有较强的理论研究意义和实用价值。首先对城市防灾规划及城市应急避难场所规划的相关理论进行了回顾,并对当前城市应急避难场所规划的相关技术方法进行了研究,详细论述和总结了多准则决策理论、区位模型、空间可达性分析等理论及相关方法,对规划支持系统及规划支持方法的研究进行了回顾和总结。在此基础上,论文提出了城市应急避难场所规划支持方法体系的框架及内容,主要包括：应急避难场所责任区划分、避难场所避难有效性分析、新建避难场所选址,所使用的模型或方法包括：责任区划分的加权Voronoi图方法、基于引力模型的空间可达性分析、基于核心估计模型的人口密度空间分布模拟方法、多准则决策及区位模型(Loication-Allocation)。应急避难场所责任区划分应用加权Voronoi图,从场所安全性、地形坡度、场所可达性、场所类型、场所容量5个方面选取了6个指标作为Voronoi图权重计算的基础,通过矢量方法生成现状各避难场所的加权Voronboi图区域,并以此作为避难场所的服务区划分的依据。应急避难场所避难有效性分析涉及场所容量和场所基于实际道路网络的可达性两方面,该方法考虑各避难场所的有效面积,以核心估计模型来模拟研究区域内的人口密度空间分布,依据责任区划分得到的各避难场所服务区来统计避难场所服务区范围内覆盖的人口数量,根据有效面积和避难场所覆盖人口、人均有效面积标准来推算各避难场所可容纳的最大人口数量,在此基础上统计各避难场所的利用率、人口配置缺口等指标。由于道路可达性是影响避难疏散效率的重要因素,而加权voronoi图没有考虑基于实际道路的可达性,因此,文中应用空间引力模型来计算研究区域内各单元到避难场所的可达性,综合考虑人口配置缺口大与可达性差的区域作为增加应急避难场所优先考虑的区域。新建避难场所选址基于多准则决策方法(MCDA-Muticriteria Decision Analysis),选取多个准则来对应急避难场所用地的适宜性进行分析,得到研究区域内适宜新建避难场所的用地,结合Location-Allocation模型对新建应急避难场所进行选址和原有避难场所布局调整。最后对规划的应急避难场所进行有效性分析,分析所规划的应急避难场所的效率是否得到发挥。最后,本研究进行了实例研究。以地震灾害为例,对武汉市武昌地区三环以内的区域,通过以上提出的应急避难场所规划支持方法来对研究区域避震紧急避难场所规划进行支持,结合研究结果对研究区域地震应急避难场所的规划布局提出了建议。本研究的特点在于,在城市防灾应急避难场所规划中,将规划支持系统的思想与我国规划实际相结合,提出城市防灾应急避难场所规划支持方法的框架,相关研究成果丰富了城市规划支持系统和规划支持方法的内容,该方法不仅适合于地震应急避难场所的规划支持,对于其它灾害和其它区域在相关数据支撑的情况下也具有一定的适用性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent occurrence of various natural disasters has made more and more attention to the problem of urban safety. Emergency situations and post disaster recovery stages, emergency shelters have become a safer and transitional place to guarantee people's basic lives. The efficiency of evacuating the victims to safety shelters directly affects the effect of disaster relief and disaster reduction. At the same time, it is also an important index to measure the ability of urban emergency emergency. The rational planning of emergency shelter will help improve the efficiency of urban disaster prevention and reduction. Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to distribute and allocate the emergency refuge in the city and evacuate the refuge in time.
In our country, the traditional urban planning method has been difficult to meet the needs of urban development. The introduction of new technical means in the related fields has injected new vitality into the development of urban planning. The rapid urbanization must be accompanied by large-scale new town development and old city renewal, which requires the rapid updating of information in the planning process for effective planning. Support. The general development of the planning support system is difficult to meet the needs of urban planning and renewal in China's rapid development because of a long period of development. At the same time, the urban planning work is very complex, and the task is varied. It is difficult to develop a regulatory support system that meets the various needs of the planning stage. Therefore, in the process of urban planning, the urban planning process is not suitable for the development of urban planning. At the same stage, the planning support method system of different levels of planning needs to meet the needs of urban rapid development and planning. On the basis of the thought of planning support system, this paper aims at the planning of emergency shelters in the urban disaster prevention planning, and integrates the relevant quantitative analysis, decision technology and methods to build the city. The support system of urban emergency shelter planning is to support the spatial layout planning of emergency shelters in China's urban disaster prevention planning.
Specifically, this study applies the quantitative analysis method and multi criteria decision making technology to the planning of emergency shelter. It provides theoretical and method support for the planning of urban emergency shelter. It has strong theoretical research significance and practical value. First, the related theories of urban disaster prevention planning and urban emergency shelter planning. On the basis of reviewing and summarizing the theories and methods of multi criteria decision-making theory, location model, spatial accessibility analysis and so on, the research on the planning support system and the planning support method are reviewed and summarized. The framework and content of the urban emergency shelter planning support method system are put forward, including the division of the responsibility area of the emergency shelter, the analysis of the effectiveness of the refuge place, the location of the new refuge place. The models or methods used include the weighted Voronoi graph method of the division of the responsibility area, and the spatial accessibility based on the gravitational model. The simulation method of population density spatial distribution based on core estimation model, multi criteria decision making and location model (Loication-Allocation) is analyzed.
The weighted Voronoi graph is used to divide the area of responsibility for emergency refuge, and 6 indexes are selected as the basis of weight calculation of Voronoi map from 5 aspects of place safety, terrain slope, place accessibility, place type and place capacity. The weighted Voronboi map area of various refuge places is generated by vector method, and it is used as a refuge place. The analysis of the effectiveness of the refuge area of the emergency shelter involves two aspects of the capacity and the accessibility of the site based on the actual road network. This method takes into account the effective area of the shelters, and uses the core estimation model to simulate the spatial distribution of population density in the study area and the shelters based on the area of responsibility. The number of population covered by the service area in the service area of the refuge area is calculated by the service area. According to the effective area and the shelter area covering the population, the per capita effective area standard is used to calculate the maximum number of people in the shelters. On this basis, the utilization rate of various refuge places and the gap of the population allocation are counted. The important factor affecting the evacuation efficiency is that the weighted Voronoi diagram does not consider the accessibility based on the actual road. Therefore, the space gravity model is used to calculate the accessibility of the unit to the refuge in the study area, and the area with large population gap and poor accessibility is considered as a priority to increase the emergency refuge. The site selection is based on the multi criteria decision making method (MCDA-Muticriteria Decision Analysis), and several criteria are selected to analyze the suitability of the land for emergency refuge, and the site suitable for the newly built refuge is obtained in the study area, and the site of the new emergency refuge is selected with the Location-Allocation model. And the layout of the original refuge place is adjusted. Finally, the effectiveness of the planned emergency shelters is analyzed, and the efficiency of the planned emergency shelter is analyzed.
Finally, a case study is carried out in this study. Taking earthquake disaster as an example, it supports the planning of regional earthquake emergency shelters through the proposed emergency shelter planning support method in the area of the three rings in Wuchang area of Wuhan City, and combines the results of the research to the planning and layout of the research area of the regional earthquake emergency refuge. A suggestion was made.
The characteristics of this study are that in the planning of urban disaster prevention and emergency shelter, the idea of planning support system is combined with the actual planning of China, and the framework of support method for urban disaster prevention and emergency shelter planning is put forward. The relevant research results enrich the content of urban planning support system and planning support method. This method is not only suitable for the planning of urban disaster prevention and refuge. Planning support for earthquake emergency shelters is also applicable to other disasters and other regions in support of relevant data.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU984.116

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