防灾避难场所规划方法及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 10:21

  本文选题：防灾避难场所 + 规划技术指标　； 参考：《天津大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：随着避难场所对城乡安全和可持续发展的重要性被广泛认可,避难场所建设正由示范、试点转向大面积铺开建设,然而,避难场所规划还没有形成成熟的理论框架和技术方法。县域城镇避难场所规划指标,避难场所选址评价、布局优化与责任区划分方法等重点和难点问题还没有完全解决,这已成为推进避难场所建设的瓶颈。本文利用防灾减灾工程及防护工程、公共设施选址、地理信息系统、决策支持系统和应急管理等学科的基础理论与方法,对这些问题开展了系统深入的分析研究,取得了一些具有科学意义和应用价值的研究成果。我国避难场所规划标准基本上是针对大中城市制定的,县域城镇避难场所规划的理论基础非常薄弱,有限的研究成果所提出的规划指标适用性较差。本文提出以地震灾害为主要防御灾种的县域城镇避难场所分类,各类避难场所的功能、规模、有效避难面积、服务范围和应急设施配置等规划技术指标和要求,以及应急道路的分类和有效宽度的技术指标。利用该技术指标分别规划了一个乡和县城镇的避难场所系统,规划结果的分析表明,技术指标的适用性较好。该技术指标初步形成了县域城镇避难场所规划技术指标体系框架,相关研究成果已编入国家标准《防灾避难场所设计规范》(报批稿)。传统的评价方法难以简单、定量的评价候选避难场所条件的优劣。为解决候选场所选址适宜性评价问题,本文以城镇避难场所系统规划的关键——固定避难场所为研究对象,构建了选址适宜性评价指标体系并给出了评价标准。借助TOPSIS方法中理想点的概念,提出了基于理想点已知部分属性权重信息的选址适宜性评价模型和求解方法。以各方案与负理想点的加权偏差再等权集结的偏差最小为目标,属性权重的部分信息为约束条件,求取指标权重。通过与现有模型的算例比较,该模型符合规划的实际情况,遵循悲观准则确定权重降低了决策风险,且模型求解简单。该方法不但可以评价固定避难场所优劣和选择中心避难场所,也可以为改造、完善避难场所提供参考。现有的避难场所布局优化与责任区划分模型存在目标过多造成求解困难,对约束条件考虑不足和责任区划分不合理等问题。为了解决“用最低的成本在哪里,建设多少避难场所”的问题,本文提出了基于改进集合覆盖模型与改进P-中值模型相结合的城镇固定避难场所布局优化与责任区划分模型及求解方法。以覆盖所有需求区的场所数量最少和需求区到选定场所疏散距离之和最小为目标,全面考虑了现行标准和实际规划的约束条件。利用软件编程,分步求取避难场所的数量、位置和选定场所责任区范围。通过与现有模型的算例比较,该模型简单直观,适用范围广,求解效率高,对责任区的划分合理,提高了避难场所系统的应急疏散效率。同时实现选址评价、布局优化和责任区划分是避难场所规划的难题之一,目前还没有一种有效的解决方法。利用本文提出的选址适宜性评价指标体系和评价标准,建立了基于目标规划的选址评价、布局优化和责任区划分的综合模型,利用改进粒子群算法解决了难以在多项式内求得最优解的问题。通过与现有模型的算例比较,该模型简化了规划程序,适用范围广,所选定场所的适宜性好。该方法为城镇固定避难场所选址评价、布局优化与责任区划分及其求解问题给出了一揽子的解决方案。现有的避难场所规划决策支持系统,还没有实现数学模型和算法与GIS空间数据支持功能的有效融合。本文以ArcGIS10为开发平台,基于本文提出的规划模型和算法,运用C#程序语言设计并开发了行业内通用的基于GIS的避难场所规划决策支持系统。该系统实现了防灾避难信息存储、查询和修改,候选避难场所筛选,避难场所评价、优化与责任区划分,以及规划结果的可视化等功能。系统将GIS空间分析功能与避难场所规划模型和求解算法有效耦合,借助GIS技术提高了大规模数据的处理能力和模型求解质量,为避难场所规划提供了可靠的决策支持平台。以迁安市(县级市)为例,系统的应用了本文规划技术指标、规划方法和决策支持系统,提出了迁安市避难场所系统的规划方案。验证了本文技术指标和规划方法的适用性,同时也为县域城镇避难场所规划提供了示范实例。
[Abstract]:As the importance of refuge places to urban and rural security and sustainable development is widely recognized, the construction of refuge places is being demonstrated by demonstration, and pilot projects have turned to large areas of construction. However, there is no mature theoretical framework and technical methods for the planning of refuge places. The key and difficult problems of the division of the responsibility area have not been fully solved. This has become the bottleneck of the construction of the refuge place. This paper has carried out a systematic study of these problems by using the basic theories and methods of disaster prevention and mitigation engineering and protection engineering, public facility location, geographic information system, decision support system and emergency management. Some research results with scientific significance and application value have been obtained. The planning standard of China's refuge place is basically formulated for large and middle cities. The theoretical foundation of the planning of the town shelter is very weak, and the limited research results are not applicable. This paper puts forward the earthquake disaster. The classification of the urban refuge places in the county towns, the function, the scale, the effective refuge area, the service scope and the emergency facilities allocation, as well as the classification of the emergency roads and the technical indexes of the effective width, are used to plan the asylum of a town and town in a township and county, respectively. The analysis of the site system and the results of the planning shows that the technical index is well applicable. The technical index has initially formed the framework of the technical index system for the planning of the county town shelters, and the relevant research results have been incorporated into the national standard < disaster prevention and refuge site design specification >. In order to solve the problem of the condition of the difficult place, in order to solve the problem of the suitability evaluation of the candidate site selection, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the location suitability evaluation and gives the evaluation standard, based on the concept of ideal point in the TOPSIS method, which is based on the ideal point, and puts forward the idea of the ideal point, which is based on the ideal point. The location suitability evaluation model and solution method of partial attribute weight information are aimed at the minimum deviation of weight deviation of each scheme and negative ideal point, and the partial information of the attribute weight is a constraint condition, and the index weight is obtained. By comparing with the existing models, the model conforms to the actual situation of the planning and follows the tragedy. This method can not only evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the fixed refuge places and select the center refuge places, but also provide reference for the reconstruction and the refuge places. In order to solve the problem of "where to use the minimum cost and how to build a number of refuge places", this paper puts forward the layout optimization of the fixed refuge and the division of the responsibility area and the solution method based on the improved set cover model and the improved P- median model. The minimum number of places in all demand areas and the minimum sum of the evacuation distance from the demand area to the selected place are the goal. The constraints of the current standard and the actual planning are taken into consideration. The number, position and area of the selected place are calculated step by step by software programming. The model is simplified by comparison with the existing model. The single intuition, wide application range, high efficiency, reasonable division of the responsibility area and improved emergency evacuation efficiency of the refuge place system. At the same time, location evaluation, layout optimization and division of responsibility area are one of the difficult problems in the planning of refuge places. At present, there is no effective solution. The standard system and evaluation standard have established a comprehensive model based on the location evaluation of the target planning, the layout optimization and the division of the responsibility area. By using the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, the problem which is difficult to obtain the optimal solution in the polynomial is solved. By comparing with the existing models, the model simplifies the program, has a wide range of application and the selected place. The method provides a package solution for the location evaluation of the fixed refuge sites in cities and towns, the layout optimization and the division of the responsibility area and the solving problems. The existing decision-making support system for the planning of the refuge places has not yet realized the effective fusion of the mathematical model and the algorithm and the GIS spatial data support function. This paper is based on the development of ArcGIS10. The platform, based on the planning model and algorithm proposed in this paper, designs and develops a general GIS based planning decision support system in the industry based on C# programming language. The system realizes the information storage, query and modification of disaster prevention and asylum, the selection of candidate refuge sites, the evaluation of the refuge places, the optimization and the division of the responsibility area, and the planning node. The system combines the function of GIS spatial analysis with the planning model and solving algorithm of the refuge place, and improves the processing ability of large-scale data and the quality of the model solution with the help of GIS technology. It provides a reliable decision support platform for the planning of the refuge place. The system is used in this paper for example in Qian'an (county-level city). Planning technical index, planning method and decision support system, the planning scheme of Qian'an refuge place system is put forward. The applicability of the technical index and planning method is verified. At the same time, a demonstration example is provided for the planning of the county town shelters.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU984.116
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本文编号：2116841