工程量清单模式下工程造价的动态分析与预测研究
发布时间：2018-07-29 17:33
【摘要】：随着《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》(GB50500-2013)的出台,工程量清单计价模式进入了全过程精细化管理的新阶段。但是,由于我国建设工程一般具有工程量大、建设周期长等特点,工程造价构成要素容易受到社会环境、技术水平、经济条件和气候环境等多方面因素的影响,而出现价格波动幅度较大的问题,因而加大了承包商对成本的控制和业主对投资的控制难度。本文着重于对工程造价的主要影响因素进行动态分析,并得出合理的造价预测指标及预测公式,对于业主、承包商在建设项目实施阶段有效地控制工程造价具有重要的现实意义。本文首先回顾了国内外工程造价计价模式的发展历程,对工程量清单计价与定额计价的区别与联系进行深入的分析和对比,提出在我国全面推行工程量清单计价的必要性,工程量清单计价能够真正实现我国市场形成价格的工程造价改革目标,有利于建筑市场的健康发展；其次叙述了《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》(GB50500-2013)相关内容及清单计价的编制程序与各项费用的组成；在计算沈阳市某高层住宅的工程造价的基础上,利用价格调整公式系统地分析了影响造价的各项因素,研究得出人工费和材料费是影响工程造价的主要因素,钢材和水泥是影响材料费的主要因素；为了使业主和承包商对影响造价的主要因素能有合理的预测和造价控制,最后本文从中国历年价格指数的走势分析出发,并考虑工程造价的主要影响因素,利用近十几年的中国建筑业的价格指数建立了人工费、材料费、钢材和水泥的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,通过了精度检验最终得到科学可靠的预测造价的指标及公式,为各参与主体对实际工程的工程造价进行合理控制提供依据。
[Abstract]:With the coming out of GB50500-2013, the pricing mode of bill of quantities has entered a new stage of fine management in the whole process. However, because of the characteristics of large amount of construction and long construction period in China, the elements of construction cost are easily affected by social environment, technical level, economic conditions and climate environment, etc. However, it is difficult for the contractor to control the cost and the owner to control the investment because of the large price fluctuation. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the main influencing factors of the project cost, and obtains the reasonable cost prediction index and prediction formula. It is of great practical significance for contractors to control the project cost effectively in the construction project implementation stage. This paper first reviews the development course of engineering cost valuation mode at home and abroad, analyzes and compares the differences and connections between bill of quantities valuation and quota valuation, and points out the necessity of carrying out bill of quantities pricing in China. Bill of quantities valuation can truly realize the goal of engineering cost reform, which is conducive to the healthy development of the construction market. Secondly, it describes the related contents of GB50500-2013, the compilation procedure of list valuation and the composition of various expenses, on the basis of calculating the engineering cost of a high-rise residential building in Shenyang. The factors influencing the cost are analyzed systematically by using the price adjustment formula. It is concluded that the labor cost and the material cost are the main factors affecting the construction cost, and the steel and cement are the main factors affecting the material cost. In order to make the owner and contractor have reasonable forecast and cost control to the main factors that affect the cost, this paper analyzes the trend of the price index in the past years in China, and considers the main influencing factors of the project cost. Using the price index of Chinese construction industry in the past ten years, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) forecasting model of labor cost, material cost, steel and cement is established, and the index and formula of scientific and reliable prediction cost are obtained through precision test. It provides the basis for the participants to control the actual project cost reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU723.3
，
本文编号：2153474
[Abstract]:With the coming out of GB50500-2013, the pricing mode of bill of quantities has entered a new stage of fine management in the whole process. However, because of the characteristics of large amount of construction and long construction period in China, the elements of construction cost are easily affected by social environment, technical level, economic conditions and climate environment, etc. However, it is difficult for the contractor to control the cost and the owner to control the investment because of the large price fluctuation. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the main influencing factors of the project cost, and obtains the reasonable cost prediction index and prediction formula. It is of great practical significance for contractors to control the project cost effectively in the construction project implementation stage. This paper first reviews the development course of engineering cost valuation mode at home and abroad, analyzes and compares the differences and connections between bill of quantities valuation and quota valuation, and points out the necessity of carrying out bill of quantities pricing in China. Bill of quantities valuation can truly realize the goal of engineering cost reform, which is conducive to the healthy development of the construction market. Secondly, it describes the related contents of GB50500-2013, the compilation procedure of list valuation and the composition of various expenses, on the basis of calculating the engineering cost of a high-rise residential building in Shenyang. The factors influencing the cost are analyzed systematically by using the price adjustment formula. It is concluded that the labor cost and the material cost are the main factors affecting the construction cost, and the steel and cement are the main factors affecting the material cost. In order to make the owner and contractor have reasonable forecast and cost control to the main factors that affect the cost, this paper analyzes the trend of the price index in the past years in China, and considers the main influencing factors of the project cost. Using the price index of Chinese construction industry in the past ten years, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) forecasting model of labor cost, material cost, steel and cement is established, and the index and formula of scientific and reliable prediction cost are obtained through precision test. It provides the basis for the participants to control the actual project cost reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU723.3
，
本文编号：2153474
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