基于IPD模式的工程项目风险分担研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 20:38

【摘要】：IPD (Integrated Project Delivery,综合项目交付)模式是一种能够有效节约建筑成本的交付方式。并且项目规模越大,能够节约的项目成本越多。各参与方组成IPD团队,集成了各方的专业人才、系统的知识和经验,通过协同合作的工作方式来达到减少建筑浪费、降低建设成本、减少返工、缩短工期、提升建筑物对业主的价值的目的。但是,由于各参与方在风险分担之间和收益分配上面的要求不同,也没有现行的一种可以借鉴的分配方案。各参与方就此问题的谈判协商僵持不下,或者介于项目建设的紧迫性而勉强答应不平等的条件。一旦出现不可预估的风险或是承诺不能兑现的情况,IPD团队将面对分崩瓦解的局面,以至于目前在国内只有极少数的IPD项目能够正常的完成。IPD模式在中国的发展成熟,急需建立一套合理的,对各参与方皆公平的风险分担方案,来提高各参与方之间合作的效率,真正实现IPD模式能够降低项目成本的优势。首先,本文通过归纳国内外文献及案例的方式,识别出了36个风险因素,包括16项宏观层风险,16项中观层风险和4项微观层风险。针对这些风险建立风险因素集,同时根据各参与方对风险控制管理能力的不同,划分了各自的责任风险管理分配表。最后根据IPD模式运行机制的特点,设计了基于多次谈判协商的“四个阶段”的风险分担流程。其次,从IPD风险分担的“两个目标”出发,为了达成各参与方满意的风险共担比例的目标,综合运用了层次分析法和熵权法计构建出分配权重的计算模型,同时考虑到各参与方的合作度,设计了修正系数的计算方案。再次,考虑到风险因素的不确定性和各参与方的风险偏好和承担风险的能力,在随机合作博弈理论的基础上,构建了各参与方风险转移的最优化模型,并对模型进行了求解和分析。同时计算出针对某一风险,各参与方需要补偿或是担保的系数。这样不仅实现了项目整体风险最小的目标,同时使风险从规避方转移到了风险偏好方,实现了各参与方的合作效率。最后,介于我国IPD项目的稀少性,通过案例仿真分析,得到了各参与方在此项目的风险分担权重,同时也验证了随机合作博弈理论构建的风险转移模型能够有效的降低项目的整体风险。研究的IPD项模式的理论和风险分担的方法,能够在工程实践中为各参与方如何进行责任风险分配提供参考,为确定合理的风险分担比例提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:IPD (Integrated Project Delivery, integrated project delivery mode is a delivery mode which can save construction cost effectively. And the larger the project scale, the more cost savings can be achieved. The participants form a IPD team that integrates the expertise, knowledge and experience of all parties. By working in a collaborative way to reduce construction waste, reduce construction costs, reduce rework, shorten the construction period, The purpose of raising the value of the building to the owner. However, due to the different requirements of the participants in risk sharing and income distribution, there is no current allocation scheme that can be used for reference. The participants are locked in negotiations on this issue, or grudgingly agree to unequal conditions because of the urgency of the project. Once there are unpredictable risks or promises that cannot be fulfilled, the IPD team will be faced with a situation of collapse and disintegration, so that only a few IPD projects in China can be completed normally. The development of the IPD model in China has matured. It is urgent to establish a reasonable risk-sharing scheme which is fair to all participants so as to improve the efficiency of cooperation among the participants and realize the advantages of IPD model which can reduce the project cost. Firstly, 36 risk factors are identified by summing up domestic and foreign literatures and cases, including 16 macro-layer risks, 16 meso-layer risks and 4 micro-layer risks. In view of these risks, the risk factor set is established, and the allocation table of responsibility risk management is divided according to the different ability of each party to control risk management. Finally, according to the characteristics of IPD operation mechanism, the "four stages" risk sharing process based on multiple negotiation and negotiation is designed. Secondly, starting from the "two objectives" of IPD risk sharing, in order to achieve the goal of the risk-sharing ratio satisfied by all the participants, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method are used to construct the calculation model of the distribution weight. At the same time, considering the cooperation degree of the participants, the calculation scheme of the correction coefficient is designed. Thirdly, considering the uncertainty of risk factors, the risk preference of each participant and the ability to bear risks, the optimal model of risk transfer of each participant is constructed on the basis of stochastic cooperative game theory. The model is solved and analyzed. At the same time, the coefficient of compensation or guarantee is calculated for a certain risk. This not only realizes the goal of minimum overall risk of the project, but also transfers the risk from evading party to risk preference party, and realizes the cooperation efficiency of each participant. Finally, in view of the scarcity of IPD project in our country, through the simulation analysis of the case, we get the risk sharing weight of each participant in this project. At the same time, it also verifies that the risk transfer model constructed by stochastic cooperative game theory can effectively reduce the overall risk of the project. The theory of IPD item model and the method of risk sharing can provide reference for each participant how to distribute the responsibility risk in engineering practice and provide decision support for determining the reasonable risk sharing ratio.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71

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