中国对外承包工程企业国际工程项目风险预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 19:11

【摘要】：随着国家“走出去”战略的实施,我国对外承包工程业务的市场发展状况、发展特点和竞争形势都发生了深刻的变化。同时,对外承包工程企业加快实现经营模式的转型升级,使得新建工程项目面临更为复杂的风险因素,近年来出现的一些重大亏损、提前中止的工程案例印证了这一变化趋势。因此,致力于“走出去”的中国企业在项目实施过程中,迫切需要建立健全风险管理制度,提升企业风险管理能力,保证项目的顺利运作和企业的持续发展。论文首先通过企业调研和专家访谈等方式调研企业的风险管理现状,发现企业普遍缺乏风险管理人才与技术、项目风险信息传递不畅和缺少风险管控能力,而加强对项目实施过程的风险监控预警、提高企业和项目风险信息的有效流动,是我国对外承包工程企业提高风险管理水平的重要途径。其次,论文通过文献综述和案例研究方法,识别出国际工程项目全生命周期各阶段的风险因素65个,共分为项目环境风险(25个)、项目参与者风险(7个)和项目管理风险(33个)三个层级的23类风险因素,并深入分析了风险因素的表现形式、发生阶段和影响后果。在此基础上,论文通过问卷调研和企业调研的方法对项目风险因素进行风险评估,结果表明企业前期决策和企业无法独立控制的风险是高发风险,影响承包商前期决策、谈判和设计的风险是高危风险,项目环境风险是企业管理能力最差的一类风险因素。在此基础上,对风险因素重要性等级进行划分,48个风险因素被划为“高”等级风险因素。然后,论文通过搜集与项目环境风险相关、来自国际权威机构的国家风险评价数据建立面板数据,构建了中国对外承包工程营业额与项目环境风险的回归模型。采用结构方程模型构建项目风险因素重要性、企业风险管理能力与项目实际绩效水平的影响关系模型,通过问卷问卷调研和专家访谈方法采集数据进行模型解析,结果表明项目管理风险对项目绩效的直接影响效应最大,项目环境风险对项目绩效的直接影响效应和间接效应的影响总和最大,劳务准入风险等风险因素对项目绩效影响最大。基于以上两类模型,提出构建项目环境风险预警指数、项目参与者风险与项目管理风险预警指数的计算方法和判别准则。最后,论文提出国际工程项目全生命周期的风险管理流程,探讨了风险预警机制的工作定位与工作模块,明确了不同类别风险因素风险预警的工作流程。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the "going out" strategy, the market development, development characteristics and competition situation of China's foreign contracting project business have undergone profound changes. At the same time, foreign contracting engineering enterprises speed up the transformation and upgrading of management mode, which makes new construction projects face more complex risk factors. In recent years, some major losses have appeared, which is confirmed by the project cases that have been suspended in advance. Therefore, in the process of project implementation, Chinese enterprises committed to "going out" urgently need to establish and improve the risk management system, enhance the enterprise risk management ability, and ensure the smooth operation of the project and the sustainable development of the enterprise. First of all, through enterprise research and expert interviews, we find that enterprises generally lack of risk management personnel and technology, project risk information transmission is not smooth and lack of risk management ability. It is an important way to improve the level of risk management for China's foreign contracting engineering enterprises to strengthen the risk monitoring and early warning of the project implementation process and to improve the effective flow of risk information between enterprises and projects. Secondly, through literature review and case study, 65 risk factors in the whole life cycle of international engineering project are identified. There are 23 kinds of risk factors in three levels: project environmental risk (25), project participant risk (7) and project management risk (33). On this basis, the paper carries on the risk assessment to the project risk factor through the questionnaire investigation and the enterprise investigation method, the result shows that the enterprise early decision and the enterprise can not independently control the risk is the high risk, affects the contractor early decision. The risk of negotiation and design is high risk, project environment risk is the worst risk factor of enterprise management ability. On this basis, 48 risk factors are classified as "high" grade risk factors. Then, by collecting the national risk assessment data from the international authoritative organizations, the paper builds a regression model between the turnover of China's foreign contracting projects and the environmental risk of projects by collecting the data related to the project environmental risk and establishing panel data. The importance of project risk factors and the relationship between enterprise risk management ability and actual project performance are constructed by using structural equation model, and the data collected by questionnaire survey and expert interview are analyzed. The results show that the direct effect of project management risk on project performance is the largest, the sum of direct and indirect effects of project environmental risk on project performance is the largest, and the risk factors such as labor access risk have the greatest impact on project performance. Based on the above two kinds of models, the calculation method and criterion of project environmental risk early warning index, project participant risk and project management risk warning index are proposed. Finally, the paper puts forward the risk management process of the whole life cycle of the international engineering project, discusses the work orientation and work module of the risk early warning mechanism, and clarifies the work flow of the risk early warning of different types of risk factors.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.92;F752.68

【相似文献】