Theoretical Framework of Drought Risk Assessment

  本文关键词：旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

摘要：

旱灾风险评估是定量认识旱灾风险机理、科学防控旱灾风险的重要基础性研究，在旱灾风险管理理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据旱灾风险的形成机制，在旱灾风险评估基本概念分析的基础上，提出并系统地阐述了由旱灾致灾因子危险性、承灾体的灾损敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力组成的旱灾风险系统。在此系统结构基础上提出了旱灾风险评估方法论和旱灾风险评估理论模式，进而建立了由致灾因子危险性分析、承灾体脆弱性分析、旱灾损失风险分析、旱灾风险评价、旱灾风险决策分析方法组成的旱灾风险评估方法体系，以及由干旱频率与旱灾损失关系曲线图、干旱频率空间分布图、旱灾损失空间分布图、与旱灾风险有关的致灾因子危险性分布图等各种专题图、旱灾风险区划图组成的旱灾风险评估应用模式体系。由上述旱灾风险系统结构、旱灾风险评估方法论和理论模式、旱灾风险评估方法体系和应用模式体系组成旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架，该理论框架在其它自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值。

Abstract： 

Drought risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk,which is of great significance in the theory and practice of drought risk management.According to the formation mechanism of drought risk,the drought risk system consisted of disaster hazard,damage sensitivity,drought exposure and drought resistance capacity is proposed and systematically expounded based on the analysis of the basic concepts of drought risk assessment.On the basis of the drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment are put forward. And then,the method system of drought risk assessment consisted of drought hazard analysis,drought vulnerability analysis,drought loss risk analysis,drought risk assessment,drought risk decision analysis is established.Mean-while,the application mode system of drought risk assessment is established,which is consisted of all kinds of the-matic maps related to drought risk such as drought frequency-drought loss diagram,spatial distribution maps of drought frequency,drought loss and drought hazard,as well as the hazard zoning map of drought risk.The prelimi-nary theoretical framework of drought risk assessment,which is consisted of drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment,method system of drought risk assessment and its application mode system,has reference and application value in other natural disaster risk assessments.

  本文关键词：旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。