生态风险评价尹大强_生态风险评价方法述评

  本文关键词：生态风险评价方法述评，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

生态学报2010,30(10):2735—2744ActaEcologicaSinica

生态风险评价方法述评

张思锋,刘晗梦

(西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,西安　710049)3

摘要:生态风险是由环境的自然变化或人类活动引起的生态系统组成、结构的改变而导致系统功能损失的可能性。生态风险评价是定量预测各种风险源对生态系统产生风险的或然性以及评估该风险可接受程度的方法体系,因而是生态环境风险管理与决策的定量依据。在介绍了生态风险概念的基础上,按照风险源性质的分类标准将生态风险划分为化学污染类风险源、生态事件类风险源、复合类风险源3类,并分别论述了3类生态风险对应评价方法的特点与发展的方向。另外,针对生态风险评价研究的现状,讨论了我国生态风险研究的优先领域,包括建立急性、慢性毒理数据库,构建外来生物入侵风险评价标准等,同时,建议将综合概率统计学、复杂系统理论与遥感技术等手段引入生态风险评价方法中,以进一步提高风险评价结果在生态风险管理中的有效性。

关键词:生态风险评价;生态风险评价方法

ReviewofecologicalriskassessmentmZHANGSifeng,LIUHanmeng

SchoolofPublicManagementandAdmXiaoTong,China3

Abstract:Theriskasthecharacterizationoftheadverseecologicaleffectsoftobynaturalchangesorhumanactivities.Ecologicalriskassessmentisaflexibleprocessforanalyzingdata,assumptions,anduncertaintiestoevaluatethelikelihood(probability)ofadverseecologicaleffectsthatmayhaveoccurredormayoccurasaresultofexposuretooneormorestressorsrelatedtosourcesofecologicalrisk.Itcanprovideareliablequantitativeevidencefortheecologicalenvironmentriskmanagementanddecision2making.Theecologicalriskassessmentcanbedividedintothreeregimesaccordingtotheclassificationstandardforthecharactersoftherisksource,includingriskassessmentofchemicalpollutionrisksource,ecologicalassessmentofecologicaleventsrisksourceandriskassessmentofcompositerisksource(naturalrisksourceandhumanactivitiesrisksource).Thispaperreviewstherecentdevelopmentssurroundingconceptofecologicalriskanddiscussesthefutureresearchdirectionsofthreemethodsofecologicalriskassessment.Theimprovedquotientmethodismorequantificationalthantheoldonebysettingmultiplelevelsofriskorgivingthevalueofrisk,andthefurtherstudyofthismethodmaybefocusedonreflectingtherelationshipbetweentheconcentrationofpollutantsandtheeffectsofthecontaminatedreceptors,estimatinginfluenceofpollutantsonreceptorswhicharenotinthestudysitesandcalculatingtherangeofbeingpollutedordamaged.Whentheacutetoxicologicaleffectsisanalyzebytheexposure2responsemethodtoassessecologicalriskinthecontrolledconditions,itisimportanttoanalyzethesecondaryeffectsofpollutantsonobjectiveenvironmentandchangesofreceptorseffectscausedbytransformationaswell.Theresearchoftheinvasiveriskassessmentofnon2indigenousspeciesisstillinthestageofconstructingtheregimeandhasnotyetformedasameconclusion.Thispaperarguesthatwecanestablishaunifiedindexsystemthroughdecomposingtheindicatorsoflayerguidelinesbydefiningtheconnotation,extensionandthenumbersofthespecificindicatorswhichcorrespondingtoeachlayergroup,andthe“thresholdvalue”oftheindexesshouldbeinvestigateaccuratelywhichreflectthecapacityoftheenvironment.Furthermore,wesuggestthatstatisticalmethodcouldbeusedas基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771083)

收稿日期:2009207215;　　修订日期:2010202225

3通讯作者Correspondingauthor.E2mail:zhangf@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

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  本文关键词：生态风险评价方法述评，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。