商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 18:35

本文关键词：商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价研究　出处：《大连理工大学》2008年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 商业地产以其丰厚的利润空间吸引着众多投资机构和地产商的进入,商业地产已经成为中国房地产行业的生力军。然而,在众多大型综合商业地产投资落成后,成功运营的却为数极少,巨大的资金占用和地块升值受限给地方政府、金融机构和开发商带来了难以估量的损失。面对高风险高回报的商业地产项目,如何能够增大成功机会并减少失败可能,已经成为中国商业地产行业亟待解决的现实问题。通过评价商业地产项目风险管理成熟度,不仅可以发现项目风险管理中存在的不足,而且还能明确改进方向和提升途径,进而提高商业地产项目风险管理水平。本文对商业地产项目运作周期及特点、项目风险管理和成熟度评价模型都做了深入研究,在消化吸收现有理论及成果的基础上,采用文献研究和实证研究相结合,定性研究和定量研究相结合等方法,构建了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价模型,确定了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价模型的要素和指标,提出了基于模糊综合评价的商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价方法。首先,通过规范研究和文献研究,对商业地产项目主要理论及特点、项目风险管理内涵、各类成熟度模型的研究做了文献综述和归纳分析,为商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价要素的研究奠定了理论基础。其次,通过规范研究和实证研究,分析了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度影响要素,结合商业地产项目风险影响的阶段特性,将复杂的商业地产项目风险管理成熟度影响要素按照阶段和类别进行划分与归并。根据克兹纳典型项目风险管理成熟度模型等级划分原理及商业地产项目管理特点,建立成熟度等级的五级递阶结构。结合考虑商业地产项目风险管理要素性质和指标的可评价性对部分评价要素进行定量化描述,建立了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价要素和指标体系。再次,通过德尔菲法、问卷调查法等确定了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价模型各项要素和指标的权重,根据商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价综合性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于模糊综合评价的商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价模型,为商业地产项目风险管理成熟度评价提供了一套科学的评价方法和工具。最后,通过应用实例分析验证了商业地产项目风险管理成熟度模型的实际效用。
[Abstract]:Commercial real estate attracts a lot of investment institutions and real estate developers with its rich profit space. Commercial real estate has become a new force in China's real estate industry. However, after the completion of a large number of comprehensive commercial real estate investment. But the successful operation is very few, the huge capital occupation and the land land appreciation limit to the local government, the financial institution and the developer has brought the incalculable loss. Faced with the high risk and the high return commercial real estate project. How to increase the chances of success and reduce the possibility of failure has become a real problem to be solved urgently in China's commercial real estate industry. Through the evaluation of commercial real estate project risk management maturity. Not only can we find the deficiencies in project risk management, but also make clear the direction and ways of improvement, and then improve the level of risk management of commercial real estate projects. In this paper, the operational cycle and characteristics of commercial real estate projects, project risk management and maturity evaluation model have done in-depth research, on the basis of digesting and absorbing the existing theory and results. With the combination of literature research and empirical research, qualitative research and quantitative research, a commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation model is constructed. The factors and indexes of the maturity evaluation model of commercial real estate project risk management are determined, and the evaluation method of commercial real estate project risk management maturity based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is put forward. First of all, through normative research and literature research, the main theory and characteristics of commercial real estate projects, project risk management connotation, various types of maturity model research done literature review and analysis. It lays a theoretical foundation for the research of the risk management maturity evaluation elements of commercial real estate projects. Secondly, through normative research and empirical research, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the maturity of commercial real estate project risk management, combined with the stage characteristics of commercial real estate project risk impact. The influence factors of complex commercial real estate project risk management maturity are divided and merged according to stage and category. According to Ketzner typical project risk management maturity model classification principle and commercial real estate project management special. Point. The paper establishes a five-level hierarchical structure of maturity level and gives a quantitative description of some evaluation elements by considering the nature of risk management elements of commercial real estate projects and the evaluability of indicators. Established the commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation elements and index system. Thirdly, through Delphi method, questionnaire method and so on to determine the commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation model elements and indicators of the weight. According to the comprehensive and fuzzy characteristics of commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation, a commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. It provides a set of scientific evaluation methods and tools for commercial real estate project risk management maturity evaluation. Finally, the practical utility of the risk management maturity model of commercial real estate project is verified by an application example.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F293.3;F224

【引证文献】