基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估

  本文关键词：基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

第32卷第6期 岩 土 力 学 Vol.32 No.6 2011年6月 Rock and Soil Mechanics Jun. 2011

文章编号：1000－7598 (2011) 06－1757－10

基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估

许振浩1，李术才1，李利平1，侯建刚2，隋 斌1，石少帅1

(1. 山东大学 岩土与结构工程研究中心，济南 250061；2. 中交一公局 桥隧工程有限公司，河北 高碑店 074000)

摘 要：为控制岩溶隧道突水突泥风险，通过统计与理论分析相结合的方法，研究了相关工程实例，并基于层次分析法研究了岩溶隧道突水突泥控制因素与因素权值，提出了岩溶隧道突水突泥风险3阶段评估与控制方法。权值分析结果表明，不良地质、超前地质预报、地层岩性、地下水位是突水突泥风险的主控因素；其次为宏观前兆、监控量测、可溶岩与非可溶岩接触带、地形地貌、开挖支护；最后为微观前兆、岩层产状、层面与层间裂隙、围岩级别。3阶段评估包括初步评估、二次评估与动态评估，其中，初步评估是在施工方案制定前，为估计风险，对孕险环境(岩溶水文地质与工程地质条件)的评估；二次评估是在施工前，为评估施工组织设计合理性，综合考虑孕险环境与致险因子(施工因素)而进行的评估；动态评估是在施工期，为了动态评估与控制风险，综合考虑孕险环境、致险因子与风险控制反馈信息的评估。3阶段评估与控制方法可实时、有效、准确地控制岩溶隧道施工风险，实现风险的动态修正与管理。研究成果在翻坝高速鸡公岭隧道取得了成功应用，对类似工程具有一定的借鉴意义。

关 键 词：层次分析法；岩溶隧道；突水突泥风险；因素权值；三阶段评估 中图分类号：U45；P64 文献标识码：A

Risk assessment of water or mud inrush of karst tunnels

based on analytic hierarchy process

XU Zhen-hao, LI Shu-cai, LI Li-ping, HOU Jian-gang2, SUI Bin1, SHI Shao-shuai1

1

1

1

（1. Research Center of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China; 2. Bridge & Tunnel Co., Ltd., China First Highway Engineering Co., Ltd., Gaobeidian, Hebei 074000, China）

Abstract: In order to control the construction risk of karst tunnels, through statistical and theoretical analyses of relevant engineering projects, controlling factors and factors’ weight of water or mud inrush risks of karst tunnels are studied based on analytic hierarchy process; and a three-stage risk assessment and management method is proposed for the evaluation and controlling of construction risk of karst tunnels. Factors’ weight analysis results show that unfavorable geology, geological prediction, formation lithology and groundwater level are the main control ingredients of water or mud inrush risk. Macroscopic geological precursory information, monitoring measurement, contact zones of dissolvable and insoluble rock, geographic and geomorphic conditions, tunnel excavation and supporting are the minor significant factors; microcosmic precursory information, attitude of rock formation, layer and interlayer fissures, surrounding rock mass classification are the least important elements. The three-stage risk assessment method includes preliminary, secondary and dynamic assessment of water or mud inrush risk. Preliminary assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings (karst hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions), and it is carried out for the estimation of risk before the enactment of the construction program. Secondary assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings and risk factors (construction factors), and it is actualized for the appraisal of construction organization plan pre construction. Dynamic assessment is the evaluation of risk surroundings, risk factors and feedback information of risk management; and it is brought into operation for dynamic risk assessment and management. The three-stage risk evaluation and controlling process can be instantly, effectively, and accurately used for the management of construction risk of karst tunnels, and to realize dynamically amending and governing of risk. The research results are successfully applied to Jigongling Tunnel on the line of Fanba Expressway; and it is of consultant significance for similar engineerings.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process; karst tunnel; risk of water or mud inrush; factors’ weight; three-stage assessment

收稿日期：2010-06-08

基金项目：交通部西部交通建设科技项目资助（No. 2009318000008）；中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目（No. 20090461235）；山东大学研究生自主创新基金资助项目（No. 31410070613049）。 第一作者简介：许振浩，，男，1985年生，博士研究生，主要从事岩溶地质、隧道工程灾害预测与控制研究方面的工作。E-mail：issacxuzhenhao@

  本文关键词：基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。