基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估

发布时间：2019-06-17 13:47

【摘要】：自然灾害情景模拟与风险评估是灾害研究的核心内容和热点问题之一,但城市自然灾害风险评估至今却缺乏统一的程序与范式。本文选择了城市频发的暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象,结合上海市静安区实证研究,提出了一套基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的思路与方法。基于灾害风险的基本理念,从致灾因子分析、脆弱性分析和暴露分析三方面入手,探讨不同情景下的小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险表达方式;提出了小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估宜采用情景模拟和综合分析方法,充分考虑城市的内部地形特征、降水、径流和排水等因素,创建一个基于GIS栅格的城市内涝模型,并基于多种重现期灾害情景,更客观地模拟内涝积水深度和淹没面积;采用多次实地调查获得的内涝损失数据,拟合出居民房屋和室内财产的灾损曲线;利用灾损曲线评估脆弱性、暴露要素和损失,建立超越概率-损失曲线,创建了基于GIS栅格城市暴雨内涝灾害的风险评估模型与范式,为制订城市暴雨内涝灾害风险管理和规划奠定了基础。这亦为进一步开展小尺度城市自然灾害情景模拟和风险评估研究提供了一种新探索。
[Abstract]:Natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment is one of the core contents and hot issues of disaster research, but there is no unified procedure and paradigm for urban natural disaster risk assessment up to now. In this paper, the frequent rainstorm waterlogging disaster in cities is selected as the research object, and combined with the empirical study in Jingan District of Shanghai, a set of ideas and methods for risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on small scale are put forward. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper discusses the scenario simulation and risk expression of rainstorm waterlogging disaster in small scale cities under different scenarios from three aspects: disaster factor analysis, vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis. It is proposed that the risk assessment of rainstorm waterlogging disaster in small scale should adopt situational simulation and comprehensive analysis method, fully consider the internal topographic characteristics of the city, precipitation, runoff and drainage, and create a urban waterlogging model based on GIS grid. Based on a variety of recurrence disaster scenarios, the depth and inundation area of waterlogging should be simulated more objectively. Based on the data of waterlogging loss obtained from many field investigations, the disaster damage curves of residents' houses and indoor property are fitted, the vulnerability, exposure factors and losses are evaluated by using the disaster loss curve, the transcendence probability-loss curve is established, and the risk assessment model and paradigm of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on GIS grid are established, which lays a foundation for the risk management and planning of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster. This also provides a new exploration for the further study of small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.
【作者单位】：上海师范大学地理系;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上、重点项目(40571006;40730526) 上海市教委重点学科项目(J50402) 上海师范大学重点培育学科项目(DZL801) 上海市科技启明星项目(09QA1401800)~~
【分类号】：P426.616

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