基于攻击预测的网络安全态势量化方法

发布时间：2018-01-27 10:03

本文关键词： 攻击预测安全态势贝叶斯攻击图攻防对抗时间预测　出处：《通信学报》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为准确、全面地预测攻击行为并量化攻击威胁,提出一种基于攻击预测的安全态势量化方法。通过融合攻击方、防御方和网络环境态势要素,依据实时检测的攻击事件评估攻击者能力和漏洞利用率,并计算攻防期望耗时;进而设计基于动态贝叶斯攻击图的攻击预测算法,推断后续攻击行为;最后从主机和网络这2个层面将攻击威胁量化为安全风险态势。实例分析表明,该方法符合实际对抗网络环境,能够准确预测攻击发生时间并合理量化攻击威胁。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately and comprehensively predict the attack behavior and quantify the attack threat, a security situation quantization method based on attack prediction is proposed, which combines the elements of attack side, defense side and network environment situation. According to the attack events detected in real time, the ability of attackers and the utilization rate of vulnerabilities are evaluated, and the expected time consuming of attack and defense is calculated. Then an attack prediction algorithm based on dynamic Bayesian attack graph is designed to infer the subsequent attack behavior. Finally, the attack threat is quantified as the security risk situation from the two aspects of host and network. The analysis of examples shows that the method is in line with the actual network environment. It can accurately predict the attack time and reasonably quantify the attack threat.
【作者单位】：解放军信息工程大学三院;河南省信息安全重点实验室;中国电子技术标准化研究院;中国科学院软件研究所可信计算与信息保障实验室;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(“863”计划)基金资助项目(No.2012AA012704,No.2015AA016006) 国家重点研发计划课题基金资助项目(No.2016YFF0204003) 郑州市科技领军人才基金资助项目(No.131PLJRC644) “十三五”装备预研领域基金资助项目(No.61400020201) CCF-启明星辰“鸿雁”科研计划基金资助项目(No.2017003) 公安部信息网络安全重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目(No.C15604)~~
【分类号】：TP393.08
【正文快照】： 1引言随着信息技术的迅猛发展,网络空间安全面临的攻击与威胁日益增多,而传统安全产品越来越无法满足防护需求,网络安全态势感知(NSA,networksecurity situation)作为一种新的网络安全防护手段,Foundation Items:The National High Technology Research and Development Progr

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