基于BP神经网络的微博转发量的预测

发布时间：2018-03-07 09:05

本文选题：微博　切入点：转发　出处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：微博已经成为人们传播和获取信息的重要途径。突发事件相关微博的传播范围对事件的影响起着重要的作用,微博转发是扩大微博传播范围的一种重要方式。该文以城管与民众冲突事件(俗称"城管事件")为例,将BP(back propagation)神经网络应用到该类事件相关微博的转发行为研究中,以实现该类突发事件下微博转发行为的影响因素分析和转发量的预测。该文先从发帖人和微博内容2个角度分析了突发事件下微博转发行为的影响因素,结果表明:1)微博发帖人的活跃度、微博涉及主题标签、包含视频等可视化信息、提及其他用户及微博的发表时间段均对该微博的转发量有较大影响;2)与发帖人相比,微博内容对其转发量的影响更大。在影响因素分析的基础上,该文通过将预测问题转化为模式分类问题,基于BP(back propagation)神经网络对突发事件下的微博转发量进行了预测,并通过改变样本数对预测结果的稳定性进行了测试,得到了有一定参考价值的预测结果。
[Abstract]:Weibo has become an important way for people to disseminate and obtain information. The scope of the communication related to emergencies, Weibo, plays an important role in the impact of the incident. Weibo's forwarding is an important way to expand the spread range of Weibo. Taking the conflict between urban management and people (commonly known as "urban management incident") as an example, this paper applies BP(back Propagation neural network to the research on the forwarding behavior of Weibo, which is related to this kind of event. In order to realize the analysis of the factors influencing Weibo's forwarding behavior and the prediction of forwarding quantity under this kind of emergency, this paper first analyzes the influencing factors of Weibo's forwarding behavior from the perspectives of the poster and Weibo's content. The results showed that the activity of Weibo's poster was affected by the activity of Weibo's poster, and Weibo was involved in theme tags, including visual information such as video, and mentioned that the time period of posting by other users and Weibo had a great impact on the amount of retweets of the tweeter. (2) compared with the poster, Weibo's content has more influence on its forwarding quantity. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors, this paper transforms the prediction problem into a pattern classification problem, and predicts the amount of Weibo's forwarding quantity under unexpected events based on BP(back Propagation neural network. The stability of the prediction results is tested by changing the number of samples, and the prediction results with certain reference value are obtained.
【作者单位】：清华大学工程物理系公共安全研究中心;中国人民公安大学治安学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91224008)
【分类号】：TP183;TP393.092

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