基于agent社会圈子网络的HIV传播模型研究

发布时间：2018-09-12 17:01

【摘要】：本文建立了一个多agent系统和社会圈子网络结合的模型,利用此模型研究模拟HIV病毒在注射吸毒人群这一高危人群中传播扩散的过程。为防控HIV扩散提供决策参考。 HIV的传播是世界上最重大的公共卫生挑战之一。世界各国对其开展广泛的研究来寻求有效的防制措施。中国HIV的防治已初见成效,但在重点地区、重点人群中,各项防治措施仍需继续加强。因此,深入研究HIV传播的内在机制对社会及政府采取有效措施防控病毒有着重要的意义。本文对基于多agent社会圈子网络模型的HIV传播仿真进行了多方面的研究。首先,按照多agent系统和复杂网络的结合机制,建立了多agent复杂网络模型。为了更好地表示HIV传播的社会网络,使用社会圈子网络来描述仿真所需的底层社会网络,并且给agent增加动态性来模拟社会中人口流动和人际关系变化。其次,提出了一个基于社会圈子理论的agent吸毒人群网络HIV传播的模型。该模型可以同时模拟共用针具吸毒HIV传播、社会影响和个体在团体之间移动的相互影响,体现了agent的反应性和适应性。再次,本文的异性传播网络模型的构建采用了一种演化生成的方法,这种方法使得个体在寻找伙伴时具有个体的偏好,并使伙伴关系网络与社会关系网络联系起来。这种方法也为建立混合模型提供了基础。本论文以多agent系统和复杂网络为基础建立了将两者相结合的模型,解决了HIV传播模型归一化、固定化的缺点。借用agent作为充当传播主体的社会个体,把个体的自主性行为能力带入了程序模型中,并模拟人际交往的动态变化特点。通过模型的仿真结果,分析了各种因素对传播过程的影响效果。以此为依据,人们可以更有针对性的开展社会防制活动以达到对病毒传播的控制和抑制作用。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a model combining multiple agent system and social circle network is established to study the spread of HIV virus in the high risk population of injecting drug users. Provide decision-making reference for preventing and controlling HIV proliferation. HIV transmission is one of the most important public health challenges in the world. Countries all over the world carry out extensive research to seek effective control measures. The prevention and treatment of HIV in China has achieved initial results, but in key areas, key population, the prevention and control measures still need to be strengthened. Therefore, it is of great significance for the society and government to study the internal mechanism of HIV transmission. In this paper, the simulation of HIV propagation based on multiple agent social circle network model is studied in many aspects. Firstly, according to the combination mechanism of multiple agent system and complex network, the model of multiple agent complex network is established. In order to better represent the social network spread by HIV, the social circle network is used to describe the underlying social network needed for simulation, and the dynamic property is added to the agent to simulate the population flow and the change of interpersonal relationship in the society. Secondly, a model of agent drug users network HIV transmission based on social circle theory is proposed. The model can simultaneously simulate the transmission of HIV, the social impact and the movement of individuals among groups, reflecting the reactivity and adaptability of agent. Thirdly, the model of heterosexual communication network in this paper adopts an evolutionary generation method, which makes individuals have individual preference in finding partners, and makes the partnership network and social relations network linked together. This method also provides a basis for the establishment of mixed models. Based on multiple agent systems and complex networks, this paper establishes a model combining the two models, which solves the shortcomings of normalization and immobilization of HIV propagation model. By using agent as the social individual as the main body of communication, the autonomous behavior ability of individual is brought into the program model, and the dynamic characteristics of interpersonal communication are simulated. Through the simulation results of the model, the effect of various factors on the propagation process is analyzed. Based on this, people can carry out social prevention and control activities to control and suppress the spread of virus.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP393.09

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