网络舆情危机预警的案例推理方法研究
发布时间：2019-07-06 17:01
【摘要】：20世纪末的信息革命推动了现代网络技术的广泛应用和普及，尤其是近年来，中国网民数量逐年递增，网民借助互联网平台进行利益诉求表达、情绪宣泄、公共事务参与的积极性和频率愈来愈高，，国家在社会转型期间凸现的各类社会矛盾也往往在第一时间聚焦于网络平台，形成强大的舆论场。与此同时，互联网强大的开放、快速传播和互动特性使得一些原本在传统传播渠道和言论环境下简单可控的舆情事件转化为群体性突发事件，引发社会网络舆情危机，这给公共危机管理带来了极大的压力和挑战。在这种背景下，利用现有技术手段和学科方法对网络舆情分析方法和技术进行创新进而为危机预警提供技术保障，对维护社会稳定、推进社会转型具有重要的现实意义。 本文首先通过大范围文献分析，总结了国内外网络舆情危机及案例推理相关研究的发展研究现状，当前国内的网络舆情危机方面的研究还处于理论研究阶段，实践层面的研究成果较少，而案例推理方法的研究已具备相当数量的理论和实践成果，属于应用比较广泛和成功的；其次解释基于案例推理方法的发展背景、概念内涵、应用范围及相关理论基础，为将其应用于网络舆情危机预警做准备；再次，以网络舆情危机案例库为基础，构建包括知识表示、案例检索、推理模型等方面的网络舆情危机预警的案例推理模型，将案例推理方法应用于网络舆情危机的预警；最后，以一组案例库数据为基础，对构建的案例推理模型进行推算检验，说明案例推理预警模型的实际运算过程，并借助运算结果的数据分析说明案例推理方法应用的适用性，期望对网络舆情危机预警机制供理论与实践支持，同时也为公共危机管理的发展做出探索。
文内图片：
图片说明：麦尼哲中国危机管理资源网（来源：www.crisismanagement.com.cn）
[Abstract]:The information revolution at the end of the 20th century promoted the wide application and popularization of modern network technology, especially in recent years, the number of Chinese netizens has increased year by year, netizens use the Internet platform to express their interests, catharsis, the enthusiasm and frequency of public affairs participation is getting higher and higher, and all kinds of social contradictions highlighted by the state during the period of social transformation often focus on the network platform at the first time, forming a strong public opinion field. At the same time, with the powerful openness, rapid communication and interaction of the Internet, some simple and controllable public opinion events in the traditional communication channels and speech environment are transformed into group emergencies, which leads to the social network public opinion crisis, which brings great pressure and challenges to the public crisis management. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to innovate the analysis methods and technologies of network public opinion by using the existing technical means and subject methods to provide technical guarantee for crisis early warning, which is of great practical significance to maintain social stability and promote social transformation. First of all, through a wide range of literature analysis, this paper summarizes the development and research status of network public opinion crisis and case-based reasoning at home and abroad. At present, the domestic research on network public opinion crisis is still in the theoretical research stage, the practical research results are less, and the research of case-based reasoning method has a considerable number of theoretical and practical results, which belongs to the more extensive and successful application. Secondly, it explains the development background, concept connotation, application scope and related theoretical basis of case-based reasoning method, and prepares for its application to network public opinion crisis early warning. Thirdly, based on the network public opinion crisis case base, the case-based reasoning model of network public opinion crisis early warning including knowledge representation, case retrieval, reasoning model and so on is constructed, and the case-based reasoning method is applied to the early warning of network public opinion crisis. Finally, based on a set of case base data, this paper calculates and tests the constructed case-based reasoning model, explains the actual operation process of the case-based reasoning early warning model, and explains the applicability of the application of the case-based reasoning method with the help of the data analysis of the operation results. It is expected to provide theoretical and practical support for the network public opinion crisis early warning mechanism, and at the same time to explore the development of public crisis management.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP393.09
本文编号：2511184
文内图片：
图片说明：麦尼哲中国危机管理资源网（来源：www.crisismanagement.com.cn）
[Abstract]:The information revolution at the end of the 20th century promoted the wide application and popularization of modern network technology, especially in recent years, the number of Chinese netizens has increased year by year, netizens use the Internet platform to express their interests, catharsis, the enthusiasm and frequency of public affairs participation is getting higher and higher, and all kinds of social contradictions highlighted by the state during the period of social transformation often focus on the network platform at the first time, forming a strong public opinion field. At the same time, with the powerful openness, rapid communication and interaction of the Internet, some simple and controllable public opinion events in the traditional communication channels and speech environment are transformed into group emergencies, which leads to the social network public opinion crisis, which brings great pressure and challenges to the public crisis management. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to innovate the analysis methods and technologies of network public opinion by using the existing technical means and subject methods to provide technical guarantee for crisis early warning, which is of great practical significance to maintain social stability and promote social transformation. First of all, through a wide range of literature analysis, this paper summarizes the development and research status of network public opinion crisis and case-based reasoning at home and abroad. At present, the domestic research on network public opinion crisis is still in the theoretical research stage, the practical research results are less, and the research of case-based reasoning method has a considerable number of theoretical and practical results, which belongs to the more extensive and successful application. Secondly, it explains the development background, concept connotation, application scope and related theoretical basis of case-based reasoning method, and prepares for its application to network public opinion crisis early warning. Thirdly, based on the network public opinion crisis case base, the case-based reasoning model of network public opinion crisis early warning including knowledge representation, case retrieval, reasoning model and so on is constructed, and the case-based reasoning method is applied to the early warning of network public opinion crisis. Finally, based on a set of case base data, this paper calculates and tests the constructed case-based reasoning model, explains the actual operation process of the case-based reasoning early warning model, and explains the applicability of the application of the case-based reasoning method with the help of the data analysis of the operation results. It is expected to provide theoretical and practical support for the network public opinion crisis early warning mechanism, and at the same time to explore the development of public crisis management.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP393.09
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