Housing Price Rising DCGE The Stock of Housing Assets Econom

  本文关键词：经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究

Research of Housing Price Rising Effects Based on DCGE： Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Wealth Gap Widening

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Yuan Pengfei and Feng Lei （Research Institute of Statistical Sciences, NBS）

国家统计局统计科学研究所,100826

文章摘要：本文基于动态视角，构建DCGE模型并引入存量住房资产，对房价上涨的经济增长效应、收入分配效应和贫富分化效应进行了系统模拟。结果表明，房价上涨刺激下的房地产膨胀虽然能够显著提高经济增长率，，并带动建筑业、重工业等行业快速增长，但却会挤占农业、轻工业和公共服务业的发展空间；房价上涨将推动政府、企业和居民三部门的收入增长，但不改变部门收入分配向政府倾斜的现状；房价上涨会加剧城镇居民家庭之间的收入分化，房产溢价的利益固化已成为近年来贫富差距恶化的主要原因。

Abstr：By building DCGE model and with the introduction of the stock of housing assets in the model, we investigate the effects of housing price rising on economic growth and income and wealth gap from a dynamic perspective. The main findings are as follows： Real estate expansion stimulated by housing price rising can significantly improve the rate of economic growth, and drive rapid growth in the construction industry, heavy industry and other industries, but it will also squeeze the space for development of agriculture, light industry and public services sector. Housing price rising will improve income growth of General government, corporations and households, while the unfair distribution that income tends to flow into the government has not been changed. Housing price rising will make the income differentiation among urban households more aggravated, and wealth accumulation from real estate appreciation results in larger gap between rich and poor in recent years.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:Housing Price Rising DCGE The Stock of Housing Assets Economic Growth Income and Weahh Gap

课题项目：感谢国家自然科学基金（批准号：71103046）的资助,感谢对外经济贸易大学魏巍贤教授、王飞教授,厦门大学林伯强教授等的建设性意见,感谢牟敦国、何晓萍、姚昕、汤向俊在本文写作过程中给予的帮助.特别感谢两位匿名审稿人的宝贵建议,感谢第十四届中国青年经济学者论坛“政治经济学与中国特色经济发展理论和政策研究”分论坛专家学者的评论意见.当然,自负文责.

  本文关键词：经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。