中国改革开放以来产业结构转型的影响因素

发布时间：2018-01-03 01:02

本文关键词：中国改革开放以来产业结构转型的影响因素　出处：《经济研究》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：解释产业结构转型的经济理论聚焦于产品相对价格波动和收入增长等因素,但除此之外,中国改革开放以来还伴随着对外开放程度不断提高、投资率显著波动和劳动力市场存在摩擦等特征,现有文献缺乏统一的理论框架同时评估所有这些因素的相对重要程度。为此,本文建立了一个两国多部门的新古典增长模型,来研究中国产业结构转型的影响因素。通过引入多部门的EatonKortum(2002)国际贸易模型、完整的投入产出结构、非位似偏好和劳动力市场摩擦等重要特征,我们将劳动力在三个产业部门的比重分解为鲍莫尔效应、恩格尔效应、投资效应、国际贸易效应、要素密集度效应和转移成本效应。通过使用1978—2011年中国宏观经济数据,通过分解核算和反事实模拟定量评估了这六种效应的影响。我们发现恩格尔效应、投资效应和转移成本效应分别是影响第一、第二和第三产业就业比重变化的最主要因素,需求收入弹性低、劳动密集度高和存在转移成本是第一产业就业比重高的原因。我们还详细讨论了不同时期六种效应的变化情况。
[Abstract]:The interpretation of economic theory focusing on industrial structure transformation in the relative price of the products and the fluctuation of income growth and other factors, but in addition, since the reform and opening up Chinese with openness are increasing, the investment rate fluctuated significantly and the labor market friction characteristics, the existing literature lacks a unified theoretical framework and to evaluate the relative importance of all these factors. Therefore, this paper established the new classical growth model of a multi sector between the two countries, to research on the influencing factors of the transformation of China industrial structure. By introducing multi sector EatonKortum (2002) international trade model, complete the input-output structure, an important feature of non homothetic preferences and labor market frictions, we will be divided into labor the Baumol effect, Engel effect, investment effect in three industries the proportion of international trade effect, factor intensity effect and transfer cost Effect. Through the use of 1978 - 2011 China macroeconomic data, through the decomposition of accounting and counterfactual simulation evaluated the six effects. We found that the Engel effect, investment effect and transfer cost effect were the first, second and third industry employment than the weight of the main factors, the income elasticity of demand is low, labor high concentration and transfer cost is the reason that the proportion of primary industry employment high. We also discussed the changes in different periods of the six effects.

【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;美国加州大学洛杉矶分校经济学系;北京大学光华管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71503102) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(14YJC790040) 广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030310147) 广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划2014年度项目(GD14YYJ04)资助
【分类号】：F121.3
【正文快照】： 一、引言产业结构转型,即经济活动在不同产业间的再配置过程是多数走上工业化道路国家的普遍特征。无论用产出比重还是用就业比重衡量,产业结构转型都会呈现Kuznets事实:伴随着经济发展,第一产业经济比重下降、第三产业经济比重上升、第二产业经济比重先上升后缓慢下降。中国

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