基于系统动力模型的山西省旅游产业发展政策仿真研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 17:39

本文关键词：基于系统动力模型的山西省旅游产业发展政策仿真研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在国家供给侧改革与去产能政策的影响下,以煤炭等重工业为支撑的山西经济出现断崖式的下滑,旅游业由于其环境污染小和可以增加居民收入等优势,成为了山西省产业结构转型升级的首选产业。山西省旅游资源丰富,目前省内旅游业的发展已经具有一定的规模,加上煤炭产业的不景气使其对旅游业发展产生的“挤出效应”降低,山西旅游业发展有了广阔的空间。本文选取山西旅游业为研究对象,指出目前山西旅游资源在其经济效益与社会效益的释放上还有很大的潜力。山西的旅游业在发展过程中对省内旅游资源开发利用程度较低,对于在地理上的分散旅游资源的整合不足,存在旅游项目重复建设、景区经营管理模式落后、以酒店为首的旅游配套设施以及交通等基础设施建设不足等问题。在此基础上,试图应用系统动力学理论,对山西旅游业发展系统内部各变量间的因果关系进行分析,构建山西旅游业发展的系统动力模型,绘制了系统因果关系图以及系统流图。应用Vensim软件对构建的山西旅游产业发展的系统动力模型进行检验,确定模型的正确性和有效性。在验证模型能反映真实情况后,对山西旅游业发展系统动力学模型进行政策仿真模拟,研究直接增加旅游业的投资、增加旅游学校在校学生数、增加相关配套施设建设以及这三个方案共同作用对山西旅游业未来发展情况的影响。结果表明,三个方案共同作用对与山西旅游业发展的促进作用最大。而在三个单一方案中,直接增加旅游业的投资比增加相关配套施设建设在山西旅游业发展中的促进作用更强,增加旅游学校在校学生数对于山西旅游业发展的促进作用较为不明显。最后,在政策仿真的基础上,本文结合山西省目前促进旅游业发展的相关政策,对山西省旅游业发展的政策制定提出四点建议。一是推进山西省产业结构的优化升级。二是加大政府对于旅游业的资金投入,并完善旅游业的融资渠道。三是提高旅游业的服务质量,加强对旅游业从业人员的培训。四是注重基础配套设施假设,为旅游业发展提供良好氛围。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of the national supply-side reform and the policy of deproductivity, the economy of Shanxi Province, supported by coal and other heavy industries, has a precipitous decline. The tourism industry has the advantages of low environmental pollution and increasing residents' income. Shanxi Province has become the first choice of industrial structure transformation and upgrading industry. Shanxi Province is rich in tourism resources, the development of tourism in the province has a certain scale. Combined with the depression of the coal industry, the "crowding out effect" of the coal industry on the development of tourism has been reduced, and there is a broad space for the development of Shanxi tourism. This paper selects Shanxi tourism as the research object. It is pointed out that there is great potential for the release of economic and social benefits of tourism resources in Shanxi at present, and the degree of exploitation and utilization of tourism resources in Shanxi Province is low in the process of development. For the geographical distribution of tourism resources integration is insufficient, there are repeated construction of tourism projects, scenic spot management model is backward. Based on the problems of insufficient construction of tourist supporting facilities and transportation infrastructure, this paper tries to apply the theory of system dynamics. This paper analyzes the causality among the variables in Shanxi tourism development system, and constructs the system dynamic model of Shanxi tourism development. The system causality diagram and system flow diagram are drawn, and the system dynamic model of Shanxi tourism industry development is tested by Vensim software. Determine the correctness and validity of the model. After verifying that the model can reflect the real situation, the dynamic model of Shanxi tourism development system is simulated to study the direct increase of tourism investment. Increase the number of students in tourism schools, increase the construction of related facilities and the impact of these three programs on the future development of tourism in Shanxi Province. The three programs play the most important role in promoting the development of Shanxi tourism, but in the three single programs. The direct increase of tourism investment is stronger than the related supporting construction in Shanxi tourism development. Increasing the number of students in tourism schools on the promotion of tourism development in Shanxi is not obvious. Finally, on the basis of policy simulation, this paper combined with the current Shanxi Province to promote tourism development related policies. Four suggestions are put forward for the policy making of Shanxi tourism development. One is to promote the optimization and upgrading of Shanxi's industrial structure, and the other is to increase the government's investment in tourism. The third is to improve the service quality of tourism, to strengthen the training of tourism practitioners, and the fourth is to pay attention to the assumption of basic supporting facilities to provide a good atmosphere for the development of tourism.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7

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