人民币汇率变动对我国区域产业结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 00:51

本文关键词： 人民币实际汇率区域产业结构传导路径　出处：《江西财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率作为市场上重要价格信号之一,不仅在对外贸易经济中处于核心地位,也在国内外资源配置中起着至关重要的作用。汇率改变我国生产要素的相对价格,影响我国参与国际分工的成本,从而引导国内资源的重新配置。自2005年实施汇率改革以来,人民币兑美元汇率一直比较平稳。然而,受全球经济体总需求偏弱以及中国宏观经济下行压力增大的影响,2014年以来人民币兑美元汇率呈现出双向波动的新态势。总体来看,人民币兑美元汇率弹性将会进一步增强,波动范围也将扩大。当前我国已进入改革的攻坚期,国内经济结构调整已经极为迫切。我国产业结构的优化升级体现在多种角度,从资源要素重新流动角度可以把产业结构认为是国内外资源优化配置的结果,而国内外资源配置通过价格信号来实现。汇率作为重要的价格信号,对于产业结构调整的影响日趋重要。因此,在人民币汇率改革的背景下,将汇率与我国实体经济紧密联系起来,探讨两者的关系,具有重要的现实意义。本文由六个章节组成,前四部分主要为基础分析部分,主要介绍汇率影响产业结构问题的选题背景、选题意义,对国内外文献进行简要的归纳和总结,说明本文的研究思路和结构、创新与不足;列出汇率与产业结构的相关理论基础;分析汇率变动影响产业结构的传导路径;回顾人民币汇率变化历程与我国产业结构演变发展。第五部分对汇率与产业结构的关系进行实证检验,为本文的核心部分。本文以我国29个省(剔除西藏、重庆两个省市)为样本建立面板VAR模型,从全国和区域两个层面考察两者之间的动态交互关系。通过脉冲响应图和方差分解发现:从全国层面来看,人民币汇率升值有利于降低第二产业占GDP比重,提高第三产业占GDP比重,有利于推进产业结构调整升级。从FDI、对外贸易可以看出,人民币汇率升值在短期内不利于FDI的流入,推动产业结构向更合理的方向发展。在短期汇率升值导致出口下降、进口上升;从区域层面来看,在东部和中西部,人民币汇率升值阻碍第二产业的,推动第三产业的发展。但是,受区域对外开放度,资源禀赋条件,以及国家产业政策等各方面因素的影响,人民币汇率变动作用于地区产业结构时,其影响存在较明显的差异性,对于第二、三产业,人民币汇率升值对东部地区的影响大于对中西部地区的影响。最后在第六部分提出三点政策建议:一、重视汇率作用,完善人民币汇率形成机制;二、转变发展方式,协调区域产业结构;三、优化商品贸易结构,积极引导FDI流向。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate, as one of the important price signals in the market, not only plays a key role in the foreign trade economy, but also plays a vital role in the allocation of resources at home and abroad. The exchange rate changes the relative price of the factors of production in China. It affects the cost of China's participation in the international division of labor, thus leading to the redistribution of domestic resources. Since the implementation of the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been relatively stable. Under the influence of weak aggregate demand in the global economy and the increasing downward pressure on China's macro economy, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has shown a new trend of two-way volatility since 2014. Overall. The exchange rate flexibility of RMB against the US dollar will be further strengthened and the fluctuation scope will also be enlarged. At present, China has entered a critical period of reform. The adjustment of domestic economic structure has been extremely urgent. The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure of our country is reflected in many angles. From the perspective of reflow of resource elements, the industrial structure can be regarded as the result of optimal allocation of resources at home and abroad. The allocation of domestic and foreign resources is realized by price signal. As an important price signal, the influence of exchange rate on the adjustment of industrial structure is becoming more and more important. Therefore, under the background of RMB exchange rate reform. It is of great practical significance to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the real economy of our country. This paper is composed of six chapters, the first four parts are the basic analysis part. This paper mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, summarizes the literature at home and abroad, and explains the research ideas and structure, innovation and deficiency of this paper. The theoretical basis of exchange rate and industrial structure is listed. Analyzing the transmission path of exchange rate change affecting industrial structure; This paper reviews the course of RMB exchange rate change and the evolution and development of China's industrial structure. Part 5th empirically tests the relationship between exchange rate and industrial structure, which is the core part of this paper. In this paper, 29 provinces of China (excluding Tibet) are selected. The panel VAR model is established for the sample of two provinces and cities in Chongqing. The dynamic interaction between the two is investigated from the national and regional levels. Through the pulse response diagram and variance decomposition, it is found that: from the national level. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate is helpful to reduce the proportion of secondary industry in GDP, to increase the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, and to promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate is not conducive to the inflow of FDI in the short term and promotes the development of industrial structure in a more reasonable direction. From the regional level, in the east and central and western, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate hinders the development of the secondary industry and promotes the development of the tertiary industry. However, due to the degree of regional opening up, resource endowment conditions. As well as the national industrial policy and other factors, the RMB exchange rate changes in the regional industrial structure, its impact has obvious differences, for the second and third industries. The impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on the eastern region is greater than that on the central and western regions. Finally, in the 6th part, three policy suggestions are put forward: first, attach importance to the exchange rate function and perfect the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism; Second, to change the mode of development and coordinate the regional industrial structure; Third, optimize the structure of commodity trade and actively guide the flow of FDI.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3

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