老厂区改造为创意产业园的不确定性研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 21:40

本文关键词： 老厂区创意产业园不确定性模糊Borda数云模型　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前创意产业飞速发展,效益日渐明显,并将逐渐成为我国经济发展的支柱产业。另一方面,随着城市转型和产业调整的步伐越来越快,大量工厂外迁,城市中存在很多闲置的老厂区。创意产业作为一种新兴产业,正处于起步阶段,恰需要大量满足自身要求的空间场所。老厂区改造为创意产业园的模式便于此刻应运而生,并在全国范围内迅速蔓延。过快过热的改造必然会暴露出一些问题。如何判断这种改造模式的不确定性以及如何应对这接踵而至的问题成为当下的难题。本文在广泛调研与深入实践的基础上,对老厂区改造为创意产业园的不确定性进行研究。完善了老厂区改造再利用的风险管理理论体系,同时对开发商的理性投资也具有一定的指导意义。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)汇总调研成果,总结分析影响因素。根据全国20多个城市老厂区改造为创意产业园的发展情况,分析该改造模式的特点。通过在老钢厂改造项目中的长期实践,进一步加深了解,从而归纳出影响其改造效果的不确定性因素。(2)建立不确定性因素指标体系,构建不确定性度量模型。以一般建设项目不确定性研究理论为基础,综合考虑老厂区和创意产业园之间的关联性以及各自的特点,从人、物、环境三方面构建与该改造模式相适应的指标体系。由于这三要素之间会互相影响,所以本文以三种构成要素之间交互相乘的关系为基础,构建了不确定性度量模型。(3)测算老厂区改造为创意产业园的综合不确定性值。在分析调研资料以及专家咨询的基础上,利用模糊Borda数分析法充分考虑群体的意见,逐级确定指标权重。随后通过已构建的不确定性度量模型测算老厂区在创意产业园改造模式下的综合不确定性结果。(4)将云模型理论引入到老厂区改造为创意产业园的不确定性研究中。综合体现了不确定性的模糊性和随机性两方面内涵,并通过正向云发生器、逆向云发生器以及X-条件云发生器生成云图,将指标对各等级概念的隶属度直观的表示出来,从而实现了定量数据与定性概念之间的相互转换。(5)以陕西某钢厂改造为创意产业园的项目为例,对本文构建的不确定性指标体系、度量模型以及评价模型进行验证,通过与实际情况相对比,验证其合理性。
[Abstract]:At present, the creative industry is developing rapidly, the benefits are becoming more and more obvious, and will gradually become the pillar industry of our country's economic development. On the other hand, with the rapid pace of urban transformation and industrial adjustment, a large number of factories have moved out of the country. There are many idle old factories in the city. As a new industry, creative industry is in its infancy. Just need a large number of space to meet their own requirements. The old factory into a creative industrial park model is convenient to emerge as the times require. And spread rapidly throughout the country. The transformation of too fast and overheated will inevitably expose some problems. How to judge the uncertainty of this transformation model and how to deal with the ensuing problems become the current problem. On the basis of extensive investigation and deep practice. The uncertainty of transforming the old factory area into the creative industry park is studied, and the risk management theory system of the old factory district reconstruction and reuse is improved. At the same time, the rational investment of developers also has certain guiding significance. The main research content of this paper is as follows: 1) summarize the research results. According to the development of transforming the old factory area into the creative industry park in more than 20 cities in China, the characteristics of the transformation mode are analyzed. The long-term practice in the renovation project of the old steel plant is discussed. Further deepen the understanding, thus induces the uncertain factors that affect the effect of transformation. 2) establish the index system of uncertainty factors. Build uncertainty measurement model. Based on the theory of uncertainty of general construction project, consider the relationship between old factory and creative industry park and their respective characteristics, from people, things. Three aspects of the environment and the construction of the transformation model to adapt to the index system. Because these three elements will affect each other, so this paper based on the three components of the interactive multiplication of the relationship. The uncertainty measurement model. 3) is constructed to calculate the comprehensive uncertainty value of the old factory area transformed into the creative industry park. Based on the analysis of the research data and expert consultation. The fuzzy Borda number analysis method is used to fully consider the opinions of the group. The index weight is determined step by step. Then the comprehensive uncertainty result of the old factory area under the innovation mode of creative industry park is calculated by the uncertainty measurement model. The cloud model theory is introduced into the uncertainty study of the old factory area transformed into the creative industry park, which comprehensively embodies the ambiguity and randomness of the uncertainty. And through the forward cloud generator, the reverse cloud generator and the X- conditional cloud generator to generate the cloud map, the index of the concept of each level of membership is visually expressed. Thus realizing the mutual conversion between quantitative data and qualitative concepts.) taking the project of transforming a steel factory into a creative industry park in Shaanxi as an example, the uncertainty index system is constructed in this paper. The measurement model and the evaluation model are verified and compared with the actual situation to verify its rationality.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU984.114

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