生产者视角下产业升级机会识别

发布时间：2018-02-21 17:37

本文关键词： 产业升级产品空间比较优势演化　出处：《太原科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新常态下我国经济减速换挡的核心在于经济转型。企业作为经济转型的主体承担者,其成为经济转型成功推动者的首要前提是能够甄别出不同时期最适合升级的产品和方向。但企业或者地方政府发现升级方向或转型的产品并非易事,一直以来经济学界不断致力于并提出了一些识别方法和工具。产品空间与比较优势演化论(简称HK模型),摈弃了之前相关研究产品空间是连续和同质的假设,通过构造产品空间图识别产品升级路径。之后,国内外一些学者纷纷将其应用于特定国家或区域产业升级和结构转型的研究。综合来看,相关研究多为国家维度的研究,忽略了大国各类区域内外比较优势演变的复杂性可能引致的内生潜在优势产业的差异;且多使用出口数据而非生产数据,遗漏掉了非出口产品数据;且缺乏从产业升级主体承担者即生产者视角的产业升级方向识别及调整能力的有关研究。本文力图在克服上述局限性的基础上,以05-10年的近500种产品的生产数据,构建产品空间中生产者调整能力及当前最具有比较优势产品的敏感度指标,重构中国产品空间图,对不同区域不同产业的潜在升级机会进行识别。本文通过理论分析得出敏感性程度越高的行业,其生产者对于产品空间结构变动信息的把握就越丰富,对产能调整就越精确,对于产业升级的判断就越合理,就越能降低产业升级的风险。这些行业就是各区域当前应该发展的最具有比较优势、产业升级成功率最大的行业。实证结果表明在当前产品空间中,分行业来看全国有78种产品敏感程度最高,154种产品敏感程度一般,90种产品敏感程度低。其余产品对产品空间结构变动不敏感。分省份来看,敏感性产品总数最高的5个省份为浙江、上海、山东、江苏、广东,分别为149、144、141、138、129;最低的5个省份为新疆、山西、西藏、海南、贵州,分别为21、30、34、36、39个。从而明晰阻碍当前优势产业发挥比较优势的障碍主要体现为过度依赖传统行业、缺乏产品多样性、技术创新不足。据此制定产业升级的多重均衡策略:从本文寻找到的各省份敏感性行业中,重点发展当前传统行业中最具有比较优势的行业;大力发展其余行业,增加产品多样性;加快技术创新,拓展产品比较优势。
[Abstract]:The core of China's economic deceleration shift under the new normal condition lies in the economic transformation. The first prerequisite for becoming a successful promoter of economic transformation is to be able to identify the products and directions that are best suited for upgrading at different times. But it is not easy for companies or local governments to discover the direction of upgrading or the products of transformation. The theory of evolution of product space and comparative advantage (HK model for short) has abandoned the hypothesis that product space is continuous and homogeneous. After constructing the product spatial map to identify the product upgrade path, some scholars at home and abroad have applied it to the research of industrial upgrading and structural transformation of a specific country or region one after another. The differences of endogenous potential advantage industries caused by the complexity of the evolution of comparative advantages within and outside large countries are ignored, and the export data rather than production data are used more frequently, and the non-export products data are omitted. Moreover, there is a lack of research on the identification and adjustment ability of industrial upgrading direction from the perspective of the main body of industrial upgrading, that is, the producer. This paper tries to overcome the above limitations and based on the production data of nearly 500 kinds of products in the period of 05-10, To construct the sensitivity index of the products with the most comparative advantage in the product space, and to reconstruct the space map of the Chinese products. Through theoretical analysis, it is concluded that the more sensitive industries are, the richer the information of product spatial structure changes will be, and the more accurate the adjustment of production capacity will be. The more reasonable the judgment on industrial upgrading is, the more it can reduce the risk of industrial upgrading. These industries are the most competitive advantages that should be developed in each region at present. Industries with the highest success rate of industrial upgrading. Empirical results show that in the current product space, By industry, there are 78 products with the highest sensitivity, 154 products with the highest sensitivity and 90 products with low sensitivity. The rest of the products are not sensitive to changes in product spatial structure. The five provinces with the highest total number of sensitive products were Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong, respectively, with 149- 144- 141-, 138-, 129. the lowest five provinces were Xinjiang, Shanxi, Tibet, Hainan, Guizhou, The main obstacles hindering the development of comparative advantage in the current advantageous industries are the over-reliance on traditional industries and the lack of product diversity. Technical innovation is not enough. Based on this, the strategy of multi-level equilibrium of industrial upgrading is formulated: among the sensitive industries in each province that this paper finds, we should focus on developing the industries with the most comparative advantage in the traditional industries at present, and vigorously develop the other industries. Increase product diversity; accelerate technological innovation and expand comparative advantage of products.
【学位授予单位】：太原科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F121.3

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