人民币ODI逆向技术溢出效应促进我国产业结构升级研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 15:24

本文关键词： 人民币ODI 逆向技术溢出理论逻辑产业结构升级　出处：《南昌大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际金融危机之后,美国等发达国家发现产业“空心化”对本国经济发展的严重危害性,因而提出了重塑制造业以优化产业结构的再工业化战略,这为我国对外直接投资提供了难得的发展机遇。近些年来,随着我国“走出去”战略的深化发展,我国ODI规模大幅提升,增长速度超过外资流入。如何计算与评价人民币ODI对中国产业结构优化调整的影响程度,已日渐成为国内学者关注的热点,因而本文研究具有重要的现实意义。本文首先梳理了现有的国内外关于对外直接投资影响产业结构的相关文献,在产业结构优化以及对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的相关概念和内涵的理论基础之上,从对外直接投资的母国产业结构调整正、负效应两个方面入手,初步分析人民币ODI对本国产业结构升级的影响。其次,对人民币ODI的历史演进和现状进行归纳分析,发现人民币ODI的资金流向存在行业和区域分布不均的特点。接着文章从对外直接投资的动因视角,演绎人民币ODI促进本国产业结构升级的内在逻辑机理。在前文的理论基础之上,本文实证部分构建了人民币ODI影响中国产业结构升级的计量模型,以Eviews 6.0计量软件为依托,通过协整检验、回归分析和脉冲响应回归等研究方法,实证检验了人民币ODI对中国产业结构高度化这一衡量指标的影响。最终发现人民币ODI与中国产业结构高度化之间存在长期的均衡关系,且从从长期来看,人民币ODI是中国产业结构高度化进程的格兰杰原因,人民币ODI对中国产业结构升级具有正向促进作用。最后,在理论分析、实证分析的基础之上,本文就如何发挥人民币ODI对产业结构的影响,推动中国产业结构优化升级提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis, the developed countries, such as the United States, discovered the serious harm of industrial hollowing to their economic development, and put forward the strategy of reindustrializing the manufacturing industry in order to optimize the industrial structure. In recent years, with the deepening development of China's "going out" strategy, China's ODI scale has greatly increased. The growth rate exceeds the inflow of foreign capital. How to calculate and evaluate the impact of RMB ODI on the optimization and adjustment of China's industrial structure has become a hot topic for domestic scholars. Therefore, the study of this paper has important practical significance. Firstly, this paper combs the existing literature on the influence of foreign direct investment on industrial structure at home and abroad. Based on the theory of industrial structure optimization and the related concepts and connotations of reverse technology spillover effect of FDI, this paper starts with the positive and negative effects of the adjustment of the home country's industrial structure of FDI. This paper preliminarily analyzes the impact of RMB ODI on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure. Secondly, the historical evolution and current situation of RMB ODI are summarized and analyzed. It is found that the capital flow of RMB ODI is uneven in industry and region. Then, from the perspective of the motivation of OFDI, This paper deduces the internal logical mechanism of RMB ODI promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure. On the basis of the previous theories, the empirical part of this paper constructs the econometric model of RMB ODI influencing the upgrading of China's industrial structure, which is based on the software of Eviews 6.0. Through cointegration test, regression analysis and impulse response regression, This paper empirically tests the impact of RMB ODI on China's industrial structure elevation. Finally, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB ODI and China's industrial structure elevation, and in the long run, RMB ODI is the Granger cause of China's industrial structure upgrading. RMB ODI has a positive effect on the upgrading of China's industrial structure. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, RMB ODI plays a positive role in promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to exert the influence of RMB ODI on the industrial structure and promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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