城镇化与房地产业协调性对房地产库存去化影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 18:26

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：房地产库存　出处：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住房制度改革结束了我国福利分房制度,居民住房需求得以释放。国务院于2003年出台《关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》,房地产业作为国民经济支柱产业的地位得以确立。房地产业开启了快速发展之路,房地产投资由2003年的10154亿元增至2015年的95979亿元。房地产业的快速发展直接带动了宏观经济的繁荣,GDP总量由2003年13.6万亿元增长至2015年67.7万亿元,年复合增速约14%。与此同时,我国城镇化水平不断提高,城镇化率由2003年40.5%增长到2015年的56.1%,年均增长约1.3个百分点。经济的快速发展为城镇化和房地产业的发展提供强大的动力,房地产业为城镇化建设提供载体,城镇化则为房地产业带来大量需求,城镇化和房地产业反过来促进经济发展,三者互融共生、相互促进。但是,房地产业与城镇化存在发展不协调的问题,城镇化过分强调人口数量的城镇化、土地规模的城镇化,房地产则出现投资过快、价格偏高等问题,二者不相适应。随着房地产价格的不断攀升,居住性房地产需求被抑制,投资性需求不断扩大,政府对房地产业进行宏观调控,试图降低房地产价格以减少投资性需求、促进民生,但由于土地财政、GDP考核机制等因素影响,调控效果并不显著,房地产投资不断增加,房地产价格有增无减,商品房供给逐渐大于需求,最终导致房地产库存高企。2015年年底,商品房(现房)待售面积约7.2亿平方米,期房待售面积约25.1亿平方米,按照2015年商品房年销售面积计算,商品房(现房)去化周期约为6.7个月,广义商品房(期房、现房)去化周期约为30.2个月,严重超出合理的消化周期(18个月)。严重的商品房库存积压抑制了房地产开发投资,拖累了中国经济。2015年中央经济工作会议以及2016年政府工作报告均提及房地产去库存,房地产去库存已经上升为国家战略。房地产业发展的最大动力是城镇化,但城镇化与房地产业之间存在发展不协调的现象。本文基于城镇化与房地产业发展的"度"的视角,定性、定量分析房地产库存高企的成因。首先,借鉴国内外已有研究文献,确定研究思路;其次,梳理我国城镇化发展历程,将城镇化历程划分为两大阶段:城镇化起步阶段(1949～1995年)和城镇化成长阶段(1996～2015年),通过梳理各阶段城镇化发展历程,发现我国城镇化虽然取得了快速的发展,但也面临着城镇化质量不高、城镇土地扩张严重、产业发展不足等问题;第三,梳理我国房地产业发展历程,分析我国房地产发展概况及商品房库存现状;第四,引进聚集经济理论、区位发展理论、产业发展理论,理论分析城镇化与房地产业之间的相互作用,发现城镇化与房地产业之间相互促进、共同发展;第五,根据因子分析原理,运用SPSS18.0量化分析城镇化和房地产业的综合发展水平,结果表明,我国城镇化和房地产业发展存在区域失衡、发展缓慢的问题;第六,构建城镇化与房地产业之间的耦合协调度模型,从横向和纵向两个角度分析我国城镇化与房地产业之间的耦合协调度,研究表明我国城镇化与房地产业不协调现象较为严重,2014年仅有12省市处于协调状态,而且协调度水平均较低,纵向上,大部分省市城镇化与房地产业协调性不断提高,但增长缓慢;最后,构建房地产库存去化周期面板数据模型,实证分析房地产库存去化周期的影响因素。研究表明,城镇化与房地产业协调度每增加0.1,房地产去化周期将显著下降2.4个月;商品房价格每下降1000元,商品房去化周期将减少0.3个月;人口城镇化率提高将增加房地产去化周期,主要原因可能是我国人口城镇化率存在较大的水分,并不能准确地反映我国真实的城镇化水平,所以,应着力提高户籍人口城镇化率,实施户籍制度改革,切实提高我国的城镇化水平。化解房地产库存高企的根本方法是要增加城镇化与房地产业之间的协调性,鉴于此,本文提出以下建议:第一,积极落实户籍制度改革,真正实现以人为本的城镇化;第二,推进住房租赁市场建设,构建多层次的住房供应体系,实现房地产业健康发展;第三,适当降低商品房价格以增加商品房消费,加快房地产库存去化。
[Abstract]:The reform of the housing system the end of our welfare housing system, the housing needs to be released. In 2003 the State Council issued "on promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market notification on, the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy. The establishment of the position of the real estate industry has opened the road of rapid development, the real estate investment by 10154 in 2003 billion yuan in 2015 to 95979 yuan. The rapid development of real estate industry directly led to the macro economic prosperity, the total GDP from 2003 to 13 trillion and 600 billion yuan in 2015 increased to 67 trillion and 700 billion yuan, the annual compound growth rate of about 14%. at the same time, the increasing level of urbanization in China, the urbanization rate increased from 40.5% in 2003 to 56.1% in 2015, an average annual growth rate about 1.3 percentage points. The rapid development of the economy provides a strong impetus for the urbanization and the development of the real estate industry, the real estate industry to urbanization provide carrier, urbanization Bring a large demand for the real estate industry, the urbanization and the real estate industry in promoting economic development, the three mutually melt symbiosis and mutual promotion. However, the real estate industry and urbanization development coordination problems, too much emphasis on urbanization population urbanization, land urbanization scale, real estate investment too fast, high price, the two do not adapt. With the real estate prices rising, residential real estate demand is suppressed, investment demand continues to expand, the government's macro-control of the real estate industry, trying to reduce the real estate prices in order to reduce the investment demand, and promote the people's livelihood, but due to land finance the influence factors of GDP, assessment mechanism, control effect is not significant, the real estate investment is increasing, the real estate price increase, commercial housing supply is more than demand, eventually leading to the end of the real estate inventory high.2015, commodity Real (Xianfang) for sale area of about 720 million square meters, forward delivery housing for sale area of about 2 billion 510 million square meters, in 2015 annual sales area of commercial housing, commercial housing (Xianfang) to a period of about 6.7 months, general commercial housing (forward delivery housing to cycle, Xianfang) for about 30.2 months, serious beyond reasonable digestion period (18 months). Serious commercial housing inventory backlog inhibits investment in real estate development, dragged down economic Chinese.2015 central economic work conference and the 2016 government work report mentions the real estate inventory, real estate stock has risen to national strategy. The maximum power of real estate development is urbanization. But the development of uncoordinated phenomena between the urbanization and the real estate industry. The urbanization and the development of the real estate industry "degree" perspective, based on the qualitative analysis, the causes of high inventory of real estate quantitatively. Firstly, the research at home and abroad in China by Xian, determine the research ideas; secondly, combing the development of China's urbanization process, the urbanization process is divided into two stages: the initial stage of urbanization (1949~1995 years) and urbanization growth stage (1996~2015 years), through the development of various stages of urbanization, found that although China's urbanization has made rapid development, but also facing the urbanization quality is not high, a serious problem of urban land expansion, industrial development is insufficient; third, combing the development process of China's real estate industry, analysis of China's real estate development and commercial housing inventory situation; fourth, the introduction of agglomeration economy theory, regional development theory and Industry development theory, theoretical analysis of mutual interaction between urbanization and the real estate industry, found between urbanization and real estate industry mutual promotion and common development; fifth, according to the principle of factor analysis, using SPSS18.0 quantitative analysis of urbanization and the real estate industry in The results show that the level of development, China's urbanization and the development of the real estate industry in regional imbalance, the problem of slow development; sixth, construct the coupling between urbanization and real estate industry coordination model, analysis of coupling coordination of China's urbanization and the real estate industry between two from horizontal and vertical perspective. Research shows that with the real estate industry of our country town uncoordinated phenomenon is more serious, in 2014 only 12 provinces and cities in coordination state, and coordination degree are low, vertically, most of the provinces in the urbanization and the real estate industry coordination continues to improve, but slow growth; finally, the construction of real estate inventory to cycle panel data model an empirical analysis of the impact factors, the real estate inventory to cycle. The study shows that the urbanization and the real estate industry coordination degree increased 0.1, the real estate cycle to 2.4 months will be decreased significantly; commercial housing prices fell 1000 yuan each, taking The real goods to cycle will be reduced by 0.3 months; population urbanization rate will increase to improve the real estate cycle, the main reason may be the population of our country's urbanization rate of water, so does not accurately reflect the level of urbanization in China, the real, efforts should be made to improve the household population urbanization rate. The implementation of the reform of the household registration system, and effectively improve the level of urbanization in our country. The basic method to resolve the real estate inventory high prices is to increase the coordination between urbanization and real estate industry in view of this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, actively implement the reform of the household registration system, realize human centered urbanization; second, promote the construction of the rental housing market, the construction of multi-level housing supply system, to realize the healthy development of the real estate industry; third, due to lower commercial housing prices to increase commercial housing consumption, speed up the real estate inventory to.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.23;F299.21

【参考文献】