FDI对我国产业对外依存度的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 11:51

本文选题：FDI　切入点：出口对外依存度　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据商务部网站统计数据,截至2013年年底,全国累计批准设立外商投资企业786051个,实际使用外资金额13937亿美元。可以这样说,改革开放不断深入的过程同时也是民族工业面对外国资本日趋激烈的竞争过程,巨额的外资数额,给我国经济发展带来了不可替代的促进作用,但同时也给我国产业带来了安全隐患。外商直接投资的增加,将会影响我国产业对外依存度,而产业对外依存度是产业安全的评价指标之一。我国产业对外依存度近些年一直处于较高的水平,过高的对外依存度会使得出口与国内经济的联系不紧密,从而导致出口结构升级对国内企业带动作用小,进而致使出口结构升级变化对国内产业结构升级和技术进步作用的影响有限,贸易对经济增长的拉动作用减弱,还会在技术上形成对国际市场的长期依赖。本文采用实证分析,发现产业进口对外依存度、外商直接投资和实际有效汇率指数之间存在着协整关系,产业出口对外依存度、外商直接投资和实际有效汇率指数之间也存在协整关系,通过格兰杰因果关系检验,发现外商直接投资和实际有效汇率指数是产业进口对外依存度和产业出口对外依存度的格兰杰原因。即外商直接投资、实际有效汇率指数的变化能引起产业进口对外依存度和产业出口对外依存度的变化。长期均衡结果表明,外商直接投资的增加可以小幅度的降低我国产业出口对外依存度,较大程度的增加我国进口对外依存度。利用误差修正模型对模型进行修正,发现短期内,滞后一期的FDI对进出口对外依存度有正向影响,滞后二期的FDI对当期进出口对外依存度有负向影响,并且影响程度要大于滞后一期FDI的影响,总体而言,短期内FDI对进出口对外依存度为负向影响。本文利用比较分析法来研究FDI对资本对外依存度和技术对外依存度的影响,通过比较发现,FDI的增加还是会提高我国资本对外依存度的。在研究技术对外依存度时,我们分别计算了将外资企业的RD算为我国RD,将外资企业的RD算为技术引进费用两种情况,比较可以发现,虽然我国技术对外依存度有逐年下降的趋势,但是考虑到外资企业的对外技术依存度比没有考虑外资企业的技术对外依存度要高很大,变化也要相对缓和一些。即资本和技术对国外的实际依赖程度是随着外商直接投资的增加而变大的。总体来说,我国产业对外依存度还很高,虽然近几年在缓慢下降,但还是会对我国产业安全造成隐患,因此我国引进外商直接投资时需要谨慎。
[Abstract]:According to statistics on the website of the Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2013, the country had approved the establishment of 786,051 foreign-invested enterprises, with the actual amount of foreign investment being one trillion three hundred and ninety-three billion seven hundred million US dollars. At the same time, the process of deepening reform and opening up is also the process of the national industry facing the increasingly fierce competition of foreign capital. The huge amount of foreign capital has brought irreplaceable impetus to the economic development of our country. But at the same time, it also brings security risks to our industries. The increase in foreign direct investment will affect the degree of dependence of our industries on foreign affairs. The degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries is one of the evaluation indicators of industrial safety. In recent years, China's degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries has been at a relatively high level, and too high a degree of dependence on foreign countries will make exports less closely related to the domestic economy. As a result, the upgrading of export structure has little effect on domestic enterprises, which leads to the limited impact of the upgrading of export structure on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure and technological progress, and the weakening of the pulling effect of trade on economic growth. It will also form a long-term dependence on the international market. Based on the empirical analysis, we find that there is a cointegration relationship between the industrial import dependence, FDI and the real effective exchange rate index, and the industrial export dependence degree. There is also a cointegration relationship between FDI and the real effective exchange rate index, which is tested by Granger causality. It is found that FDI and the real effective exchange rate index are the Granger reasons for the degree of dependence of industrial imports and industrial exports. The change of the real effective exchange rate index can cause changes in the degree of dependence of industrial imports and industrial exports. The long-term equilibrium results show that the increase of foreign direct investment can reduce the degree of foreign dependence of China's industrial exports by a small margin. Using the error correction model to modify the model, it is found that, in the short term, the delayed FDI has a positive effect on the degree of import and export dependence. The delayed phase of FDI has a negative effect on the degree of external dependence of import and export in the current period, and the influence degree is greater than that of the lag phase of FDI. In general, In the short term, FDI has a negative effect on the degree of external dependence of import and export. This paper uses comparative analysis to study the influence of FDI on the degree of dependence on capital and technology. It is found by comparison that the increase of FDI will increase the degree of foreign dependence on foreign capital of our country. When we study the degree of dependence on foreign capital, we calculate the R D of foreign-funded enterprises as RDs and R D of foreign-funded enterprises as the cost of technology introduction. In comparison, it can be found that, although the degree of technological dependence on foreign countries in China has a downward trend year by year, considering that the degree of dependence on foreign technology of foreign-funded enterprises is higher than that of foreign-funded enterprises, The changes should also be relatively moderate. That is, the degree of actual dependence of capital and technology on foreign countries has increased with the increase of foreign direct investment. In general, the degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries in China is still very high, although in recent years it has been declining slowly. But it will cause hidden trouble to industry safety of our country, so we should be careful when introducing foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3

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