基于钱纳里模型的中国产业结构实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-28 06:55

本文选题：产业结构调整　切入点：钱纳里模型　出处：《东北师范大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济经历了高速增长时期。在经济高速增长的过程中累积的一些结构性问题逐步显现出来,特别是产业结构失衡问题,其造成的效率损失和福利损失抑制了中国经济的持续增长,因此协调发展产业结构,将是保持中国经济持续增长的重要途径。本文基于产业结构理论与钱纳里经济转型思想,细致地剖析了经济增长过程中发生的各方面经济变化对产业结构的影响机制,为产业政策提供理论参考。目前,关于产业结构的研究中大多以钱纳里标准作为测度产业结构失衡的标准,但钱纳里标准是基于1950-1970年的经济数据得出的,对于产业结构的衡量的准确性有所降低。因此本文以钱纳里模型为基础,选取17个经济大国在1995-2014年间的经济数据,重新估计钱纳里模型的参数;并基于钱纳里模型分析中国产业结构的调整问题;最后结合中国实际国情提出促进产业结构调整的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced a period of rapid growth. Some structural problems accumulated in the process of rapid economic growth have gradually emerged, especially the imbalance of industrial structure. The loss of efficiency and welfare has restrained the sustained growth of China's economy, so the coordinated development of industrial structure will be an important way to maintain the sustained growth of China's economy. The influence mechanism of various aspects of economic changes on industrial structure in the process of economic growth is analyzed in detail, which provides a theoretical reference for industrial policy. Most of the researches on industrial structure use the Chanari standard as the criterion to measure the imbalance of industrial structure, but the Chanari standard is based on the economic data from 1950 to 1970. The accuracy of the measurement of industrial structure has been reduced. Therefore, based on the Chanari model, this paper selects the economic data of 17 major economic countries from 1995 to 2014, and reestimates the parameters of the Chenari model. The paper also analyzes the adjustment of China's industrial structure based on Chenari model, and finally puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the adjustment of industrial structure according to the actual situation of China.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3

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