技术选择、产业结构升级与经济增长——基于半参数空间面板向量自回归模型的研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 18:54

本文选题：技术选择 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《经济经纬》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用1997—2013年31个省份的面板数据,通过构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型(SSPVAR)及时空脉冲响应函数,实证检验我国技术选择、产业结构升级和经济增长之间的时空传导效应,并探讨对外开放度对三者的异质性影响。结果发现,技术选择、产业结构升级及经济增长受到彼此的冲击后,大部分都呈现出正向的响应特征。其中,技术选择推进本省份及周边省份的产业结构升级,并在短期阻碍了经济增长,但长期内促进整体区域经济增长;产业结构升级不仅推进整体区域产业结构升级,还促进本省份及周边省份经济增长;经济中心的拉动效应较强且持久,经济增长会促进整个区域的技术选择、产业结构升级。此外,对外开放度对技术选择、产业结构升级的效应呈现出"N"形特征,对外开放度对经济增长的效应前期较为平稳,随后呈现出"倒U"形特征。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2013, a semi-parametric spatial panel vector autoregressive model (SSPVARs) and a spatio-temporal impulse response function are constructed to test the spatiotemporal conduction effect between technology selection, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth in China.The influence of the degree of opening to the outside world on the heterogeneity of the three is also discussed.The results show that the technological choice, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth are impacted by each other, most of them show positive response characteristics.Among them, technology choice promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure of our province and its surrounding provinces, and in the short term hinders economic growth, but in the long run, it promotes the overall regional economic growth; the upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes the upgrading of the overall regional industrial structure, but also promotes the overall regional economic growth in the long run.It also promotes the economic growth of our province and its surrounding provinces; the pulling effect of economic center is strong and lasting. Economic growth will promote the technology choice of the whole region and upgrade the industrial structure.In addition, the effect of the degree of opening on the choice of technology and the upgrading of industrial structure shows the "N" shape characteristic, the effect of opening degree on the economic growth is relatively stable in the early stage, and then shows the "inverted U" shape characteristic.
【作者单位】：湖南大学经济与贸易学院;福州大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71571046) 教育部高等学校博士点基金项目(20120161110034)
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.1;F124.3

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