中巴经济走廊贯通对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于沿线国家产业层面数据的反事实模拟

发布时间：2018-04-18 12:48

本文选题：中巴经济走廊 + 贸易增长空间　；参考：《世界经济研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：中巴经济走廊作为"一带一路"战略的重要组成部分,其贯通将对中国与周边国家的货物贸易运输环节产生巨大冲击。文章依据中国与中巴经济走廊沿线贸易伙伴国的贸易数据,引入预计贸易增长空间与极限贸易增长空间两个测度指标,结合回归分析与反事实分析方法测算中巴经济走廊贯通将造成的经济效应。研究结果显示:运输距离对中国与伙伴国贸易活动的抑制作用明显,伙伴国人口总量与区域贸易协定在中国进出口贸易上具有"非对称"特征;中国进出口贸易均面临典型的非效率问题,其中进口层面的效率问题更为突出;中巴经济走廊贯通将使中国出口与进口的预计贸易增长空间提升19.4%与10.1%以上,若进一步释放现有贸易环境的潜力,中国出口与进口的极限贸易增长空间将分别得到26.3%~263.6%与14.6%~779.7%的提升。
[Abstract]:As an important part of Belt and Road's strategy, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will have a great impact on the transportation of goods between China and its neighboring countries.Based on the trade data between China and its trading partners along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the paper introduces two measures, namely, the expected trade growth space and the limit trade growth space.Combined with regression analysis and counter-fact analysis, the economic effect of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is estimated.The results show that the distance between China and its partners has an obvious restraining effect on the trade between China and its partner countries, and the total population of partner countries and regional trade agreements have the characteristics of "asymmetry" in China's import and export trade.China's import and export trade is faced with typical non-efficiency problems, among which the efficiency problem at the import level is more prominent, and the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will increase the space for the expected trade growth of China's exports and imports by more than 19.4% and 10.1%.If the potential of the existing trade environment is further released, the limit trade growth space for China's exports and imports will be 26.3 percent and 14.677 percent respectively.
【作者单位】：石河子大学经济与管理学院;江苏理工学院商学院;
【基金】：自治区普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地兵团屯垦经济研究中心项目“新丝绸之路经济带建设中兵团对外贸易战略转型研究”(项目编号:XHEDU020214C05)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F752.6

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