中国面向“一带一路”产业转移的国别选择及效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-20 08:13

本文选题：“一带一路” + 产业转移　；参考：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”是中国改革开放的进一步深化,是开放东、中、西各大区域的空间推进与发展层次上的提升,也是世界经济合作模式的创新。面对世界经济复苏的乏力和第四次国际产业转移的浪潮,“一带一路”战略应运而生,为中国和沿线各国互利共赢、共同发展提供了良好平台。中国经济基础雄厚,产业体系完善,同时也面临国内产业结构调整问题;沿线绝大部分是发展中国家或新兴经济体,一定的发展梯度、良好的产业承接基础以及不断完善的产业承接环境将促进中国向沿线发展中国家进行大规模的国际产业转移。另外,产业转移模式的不断丰富也为中国投资沿线技术较为发达的国家并吸收其技术溢出效应带来可能。本文通过研究中国面向“一带一路”产业转移的国别选择及效应分析,为中国通过“一带一路”战略加强与世界经济互动提供借鉴意义。本篇论文采用了定量与定性相结合、理论与实证相结合以及空间分析等研究方法,在详细分析中国产业近况和沿线环境的基础上,逐步筛选出适宜中国面向沿线转移的产业和国家,进一步探讨了中国的产业国际转移将带来的效应,并在此基础上提出相关建议。整篇论文共分为七个部分:第一部分为引言部分,概述选题背景与意义、国内外对国际产业转移和“一带一路”的相关研究,梳理研究思路与框架、研究方法、技术路线等。第二部分为论文研究的相关概念和理论,简要阐述了“一带一路”战略、国际产业转移、国际产业转移效应等概念的内涵,并且总结了产业转移区位选择影响等方面的理论基础,主要包括区位理论、边际产业扩张理论、投资发展周期理论、全球价值链分工理论等,最后,进行了综合分析与评述。第三部分为“一带一路”战略的提出及产业转移的契机分析。首先简要总结中国提出并推动“一带一路”战略的发展历程,其次,分析了当前世界经济的发展态势,着重分析了全球化发展中第四次国际产业转移提供的机遇与挑战,然后,基于“一带一路”沿线产业转移双方(即中国与沿线国家)的两个角度,分析了各自的基础和优势。第四部分主要内容是适宜转移产业类型的筛选。首先考虑产业转移的原则和基准,包括产业相对优势基准、边际产业基准、产业发展同质性等基准,在国内产业发展角度,完成适合转移产业的筛选。其次,在考虑中方因素的基础上,分析沿线国家对于产业转移的准入政策和鼓励政策,最终确定适宜转移产业的类型,并将其归为基础设施建设、劳动密集型轻工业、中高技术密集型制造业、资本密集型重工业、生产性服务业五大类,并着重分析了各类中的重点产业。第五部分为中国面向沿线产业转移的国别选择。首先通过产业结构相似系数分析沿线国家与中国的产业对接程度,利用层次分析法(AHP)建立吸引力指标评价体系,通过比较选择其中产业对接较好的国家,继续测算其对中国产业转移的吸引力。根据吸引力排名,确定主要承接国为印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、土耳其等国家,将此类国家与第四部分已经确定的适宜转移产业进行匹配,并得出主要结论:中国适宜向印度转移的产业类型主要是交通建设以及电信行业、电力(除核电)、农产品加工、纺织业、服装业;中国适宜向印度尼西亚转移的产业类型主要是基础设施建设、纺织业、电子行业、化工产业、通信信息产业;中国适宜向马来西亚转移的产业类型主要是基础设施建设、中等技术制造业和部分装备制造业;中国适宜向泰国转移的产业类型主要是轻工业、机械设备和运输工具制造业、化工行业、服务业等产业,中国适宜向土耳其转移的产业类型主要是电信、能源、制造业、交通等领域。第六部分,从经济、社会、生态三大方面分析中国面向“一带一路”产业转移将带来的一系列效应,得出产业转移将为调整国内产业结构、解决部分与就业相关的社会问题、促进全球生态文明等方面有着积极的影响。第七部分,中国面向“一带一路”产业转移的结论、对策建议及相关的展望,提出加强宏观调控与规划、配合国内产业结构调整方向、着力推广品牌产业等对策。
[Abstract]:"The Belt and Road Chinese" is to further deepen the reform and opening up, is open to the East, West, regional space propulsion and increases in the level of development, innovation is the world economic cooperation mode. Facing the weak and the fourth international industrial transfer of the wave of world economic recovery, "came into being The Belt and Road" strategy. For Chinese and along All countries have a good platform for mutual benefit and mutual development. China has a strong economic base and a perfect industrial system. At the same time, it also faces the problem of adjustment of domestic industrial structure. Most of them are developing countries or emerging economies along the line. A certain development gradient, a good industrial connection foundation and a continuous and perfect industrial undertaking environment will be promoted. Chinese to developing countries along the large-scale international industrial transfer. In addition, the industrial transfer mode for Chinese continuously enriched along the investment in technology developed country and absorb the technology spillover effect might bring. Analyze the country selection and studied Chinese oriented "The Belt and Road" industry transfer, as in China and the world economy to strengthen interaction provides reference through the "The Belt and Road" strategy. This paper uses the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, combination of theoretical and empirical research methods and spatial analysis, based on the detailed analysis of Chinese industry status and along the environment, step by step to select suitable Chinese oriented along the transfer of industry And the country, to further explore the effect of China international industry transfer will bring, and put forward relevant suggestions. The whole thesis is divided into seven parts: the first part is the introduction part, an overview of the background and significance of topics, both at home and abroad on the international industrial transfer and related research The Belt and Road ", combing research ideas with the research framework. Research methods, technical route and so on. The second part is the research on the related concepts and theories, briefly describes the "The Belt and Road" strategy, international industry transfer, the connotation of international industry transfer effect and other concepts, and summarizes the theoretical basis of the industrial transfer of location choice effects, including location theory, marginal industry expansion theory And the investment development cycle theory, the global value chain theory, finally, analyzed and reviewed. The third part is the analysis of "The Belt and Road" strategy and opportunity of industrial transfer. First briefly summarizes Chinese put forward and "The Belt and Road" strategy development process, secondly, analyzed the current state of development the world economy The potential, focuses on the analysis of the development of globalization in the fourth international industrial transfer provides opportunities and challenges, then, based on the "The Belt and Road along both sides of industrial transfer (i.e. Chinese along with national) two perspectives, analyses the basis and advantages. In the fourth part, the main content is suitable for transfer screening industry type. First consider the industry The principles and benchmarks of transfer include the benchmark of industrial relative advantages, marginal industry benchmarks, and industrial development homogeneity. In the perspective of domestic industry development, the selection of transfer industries is completed. Secondly, on the basis of considering the Chinese factors, the access policy and encouragement policy of the countries along the line are analyzed, and the appropriate transfer is finally determined. The type of migration is classified as infrastructure construction, labor intensive light industry, medium and high technology intensive manufacturing, capital intensive heavy industry, and productive service industry in five major categories, and the key industries in various types are analyzed emphatically. The fifth part is China's country selection for the transfer of industry along the line. First, the industrial structure similarity system is adopted. By analyzing the industrial docking degree of the countries along the line, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to establish the evaluation system of the attraction index, we will continue to calculate its attraction to China's industrial transfer by comparing the countries with better industrial docking. According to the ranking of attraction, the main undertaking countries are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand. Countries such as Turkey and other countries have matched the suitable transfer industries identified in the fourth part and concluded that the main types of industries suitable for the transfer of China to India are transportation construction and telecommunications industry, electricity (except nuclear power), agricultural products processing, textile industry, clothing industry, and China's suitable transfer to Indonesia. The main types of industry are infrastructure construction, textile industry, electronic industry, chemical industry, communication and information industry. The main types of industries suitable for transferring to Malaysia are infrastructure construction, medium technology manufacturing and part equipment manufacturing, and the main types of industries suitable for the transfer of China to Thailand are light industry, mechanical equipment and transport workers. With the manufacturing industry, chemical industry, service industry and other industries, Chinese suitable for industrial transfer to Turkey is the main type of telecommunications, energy, manufacturing, transportation and other fields. In the sixth part, from the economic, social, Chinese analysis oriented "The Belt and Road" a series of effect of industry transfer will bring the ecological aspects of the three, the industry for the adjustment of domestic transfer The industrial structure, to solve the social problems associated with employment, has a positive impact on promoting the global ecological civilization. The seventh part, Chinese oriented "The Belt and Road" conclusion of the transfer of industries, countermeasures and suggestions and prospect, put forward to strengthen macro-control and planning, with the domestic industrial structure adjustment direction, efforts to promote the brand production Industry and so on.

【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125

【参考文献】