我国产业结构转型动力分解研究——基于非平衡增长理论的定量分析

发布时间：2018-04-22 21:36

本文选题：产业结构 + 结构转型动力　；参考：《宏观经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：本文通过构建包含农业、工业和服务业的三部门非平衡增长理论模型,定量分析了恩格尔效应、鲍莫尔效应和资本深化效应对我国产业结构转型的影响。数值模拟分析表明,改革开放以来,资本深化效应对我国农业比重下降的贡献率达69.5%,恩格尔效应对服务业比重上升的贡献率达66.3%,而鲍莫尔效应对产业结构转型的贡献很小。同时,随着我国经济社会发展改革的演进,恩格尔效应对产业结构转型的贡献率不断下降,鲍莫尔效应的贡献率先升后降并在上世纪90年代达到峰值,资本深化效应的贡献率呈上升趋势。这意味着短期内我国仍需依靠投资促进资本深化调结构,而中期和长期内则需分别通过促进居民收入平稳增长及技术创新等推动产业结构转型。
[Abstract]:By constructing a three-sector non-equilibrium growth model including agriculture, industry and service industry, this paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of Engel effect, Baumer effect and capital deepening effect on the industrial structure transformation in China. Numerical simulation analysis shows that since the reform and opening up, the contribution rate of capital deepening effect to the decrease of agricultural proportion in China is 69.5%, the contribution rate of Engel effect to the increase of service industry proportion has reached 66.3%, and the contribution of Baumer effect to the transformation of industrial structure is very small. At the same time, with the evolution of economic and social development and reform in China, the contribution rate of Engel effect to the transformation of industrial structure is declining, and the contribution rate of Baumer effect rises first and then decreases, and reaches its peak in the 1990s. The contribution rate of capital deepening effect is on the rise. This means that in the short term, our country still needs to rely on investment to promote the capital deepening adjustment structure, while in the medium and long term, we need to promote the transformation of industrial structure by promoting the steady growth of residents' income and technological innovation respectively.
【作者单位】：国家发展改革委经济研究所;
【分类号】：F121.3

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