基于系统动力学的马鞍山市钢铁产业政策模拟研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 06:59

本文选题：马鞍山市 + 钢铁产业　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国资源型城市由于发展的特殊性,对资源的依赖程度高,资源相关产业决定着城市经济的发展。马鞍山市是典型的资源型城市,是我国重要的钢铁基地,钢铁产业是支撑当地经济持续发展的支柱产业。面临国内和国际新形势的机遇与挑战,如何制定科学合理的产业政策引导钢铁产业的发展,实现经济效益和生态环境发展的“双赢”局面,显得至关重要。本文在资源型城市相关理论、产业结构和产业生命周期理论和系统动力学理论的背景下,通过分析马鞍山市经济与钢铁产业、环境子系统的现状,发现马鞍山市在发展过程中存在产业结构单一、环境问题突出和钢铁产业链短的问题;在借鉴了前人研究成果的基础上,运用Vensim PLE软件,从资金、技术、劳动力和资源角度,构建了马鞍山市经济与钢铁产业、环境子系统的系统动力学仿真模型,对马鞍山市钢铁产业2012-2021年的发展趋势进行模拟仿真。通过模型控制变量的参数组合,制定了四种钢铁产业发展政策,即资金导向型产业政策、技术导向型产业政策、劳动力导向型产业政策和环境保护导向型产业政策,通过钢铁产业增加值来判断四种产业政策的效果。模型结果显示:技术导向型产业政策的经济效益最大,其次是资金导向型产业政策,劳动力导向型产业政策对钢铁产业发展的拉动力极小,而环境保护导向型产业政策的环境效益最大,经济效益最小。综合上述四种产业政策的效果,最终确定了钢铁产业综合优化发展的产业政策。最后,对马鞍山市钢铁产业的发展提出了政策建议,即发挥资源优势,延长钢铁产业链;大力推进技术创新;稳定钢铁产业的资金供给;加大环保投资,注重环境保护。
[Abstract]:Because of the particularity of development, resource-based cities are highly dependent on resources, and resource-related industries determine the development of urban economy. Ma'anshan is a typical resource-based city and an important iron and steel base in China. Steel industry is the pillar industry to support the sustainable development of local economy. Facing the opportunities and challenges of the new domestic and international situation, it is very important to formulate scientific and reasonable industrial policies to guide the development of the steel industry and to realize the "win-win" situation of economic benefits and ecological environment development. Under the background of resource-based city theory, industrial structure and industry life cycle theory and system dynamics theory, this paper analyzes the present situation of Maanshan's economy and iron and steel industry, environment subsystem. It is found that in the process of development of Ma'anshan there are some problems such as single industrial structure, outstanding environmental problems and short iron and steel industry chain. On the basis of drawing lessons from previous research results, we use Vensim PLE software, from the perspective of capital, technology, labor force and resources. The system dynamics simulation model of Maanshan iron and steel industry and environment subsystem is constructed, and the development trend of Maanshan iron and steel industry in 2012-2021 is simulated. Through the parameter combination of model control variables, four kinds of development policies of iron and steel industry are formulated, namely, capital-oriented industrial policy, technology-oriented industrial policy, labor-oriented industrial policy and environmental protection-oriented industrial policy. Through the value added of iron and steel industry to judge the effect of four industrial policies. The results show that the technology-oriented industrial policy has the greatest economic benefits, followed by the capital-oriented industrial policy, and the labor-oriented industrial policy has little pull power on the development of steel industry. Environmental protection-oriented industrial policies have the greatest environmental benefits and the least economic benefits. After synthesizing the effects of the above four industrial policies, the industrial policies for the comprehensive optimization and development of the iron and steel industry are finally determined. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of iron and steel industry in Ma'anshan, that is, to give full play to the advantages of resources, to extend the iron and steel industry chain, to vigorously promote technological innovation, to stabilize the supply of funds for the steel industry, to increase investment in environmental protection, and to pay attention to environmental protection.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.31;N941.3

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