基于空间计量模型的新型城镇化对产业结构升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 09:37

本文选题：新型城镇化 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《西北民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：基于全国和东中西部2005年-2014年的相关数据,通过对产业结构升级的Moran's I的计算表明,全国和东部省区的产业结构升级具有扩散效应,而中西部省区具有集聚效应,同时Moran's I变化较小,说明产业结构升级不明显。通过空间杜宾模型分析发现,新型城镇化对全国及各省区产业结构升级具有积极的促进作用;经济发展水平在全国和东中部地区对产业结构升级具有促进作用;科技进步在全国和东部具有促进作用;人力资本水平只在东部具有促进作用;固定资产投资对各省区产业结构升级具有积极的促进作用。各因素的间接效应在省区间差异明显,各省区在制定相关政策时不仅要考虑本省区的实际,同时要与邻接省区相关政策进行协调,以促进产业结构升级。
[Abstract]:Based on the relevant data from 2005 to 2014 in the whole country and the eastern and western regions, the Moran's I of industrial structure upgrading shows that the industrial structure upgrading of the whole country and the eastern provinces has the diffusion effect, while the central and western provinces have the agglomeration effect. At the same time, the change of Moran's I is small, indicating that the upgrading of industrial structure is not obvious. Through the spatial Doberman model analysis, it is found that the new urbanization has a positive role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of the whole country and the provinces and regions, and the level of economic development has a positive effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure in the whole country and the eastern and central regions. The progress of science and technology has the promotion function in the whole country and the east, the level of human capital only has the promotion function in the east, and the fixed assets investment has the positive promotion function to the upgrading of the industrial structure of the provinces and regions. The indirect effects of each factor are obviously different between provinces and regions. In order to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, provinces and regions should not only consider the actual situation of their respective provinces, but also coordinate with the relevant policies of neighboring provinces.
【作者单位】：西北民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：甘肃省哲学社会科学重大研究基地“民族地区经济社会发展研究中心”资助项目
【分类号】：F299.27;F121.3

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