长江经济带工业产业结构变迁及其对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 14:45

本文选题：长江经济带 + 地区专业化　；参考：《华中师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融危机后,美、德等发达国家倡导工业回归以促进经济发展,中国也随之发布了制造强国战略——《中国制造2025》。随着长江经济带上升为国家战略,如何有效依托长江这样一条黄金水道,促进长江流域的工业产业结构转型升级,成为了长江沿线省市产业政策的重要着力点。本文整体研究思路是通过梳理相关文献,结合产业结构变迁和区域不均衡增长的相关经典理论,在产业结构变迁及其对经济增长的机理分析基础上,对长江经济带金融危机后的工业产业结构变迁的特征和效果,以及变迁效果与经济增长之间的关系展开实证分析。首先通过对产业比较优势(区位商指数)、地区专业化(地区专业化指数和地区间专业化指数)和产业集聚(产业集中度和产业相对集中度)这三个典型的产业结构变迁过程中的特征现象进行综合考察,从而了解金融危机后长江经济带的工业产业结构变迁的过程。然后通过对产业结构的合理化(经过变形之后的泰尔指数)、高级化(高技术产业与工业的产值之比)和高效化(工业企业的成本费用利润率和总资产贡献率)三个常用的产业结构优化升级指标来综合评价长江经济带工业产业结构变迁的效果。最后利用合理化、高级化和高效化指标与经济增长率之间的关系构建一阶差分面板广义矩估计模型,并根据模型计算的结果给出相应的政策建议。本文的主要研究结论有:1、长江经济带工业产业的地区专业化水平和产业结构高效化水平在2011年之前持续上升,但是随着2011年之后经济增长率开始下滑,地区专业化水平略有下降,产业结构的高效化水平迅速回落。2、地方政府竞相引进高技术产业的举动和地方保护主义,促使长江经济带工业产业结构的高级化程度不断提高的同时,产业集聚水平持续降低,技术密集型产业相对其它产业而言,比较优势变化幅度最小。3、工业产业结构的合理化水平不断提升,各省市产业结构变迁效果分化加剧。长江下游的上海最先走出金融危机的影响,工业产业结构处在一个较高层级的合理化进程中,而长江上游的云南等地则在一个较低层级的合理化进程之中。4、在2008-2015年期间,工业产业结构的合理化、高级化和高效化均对经济增长有影响,但具体表现不同。合理化与高级化对经济增长的抑制作用,出现在经济增长率较高时,而当经济增长率较低时,则表现为促进作用,且高级化的影响更显著;高效化的影响则正好相反。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the United States, Germany and other developed countries advocated the return of industry to promote economic development, China also released the manufacturing strategy-"made in China 2025". With the rise of the Yangtze River economic belt as a national strategy, how to effectively rely on the Yangtze River as a golden waterway to promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze River basin has become an important focus of the industrial policy of provinces and cities along the Yangtze River. Through combing the relevant literature and combining the classical theories of industrial structure change and regional unbalanced growth, the whole research idea of this paper is based on the analysis of industrial structure change and its mechanism of economic growth. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the characteristics and effects of the changes in industrial structure after the financial crisis in the Yangtze economic belt and the relationship between the changes and economic growth. First of all, through the industrial comparative advantage (location quotient index), regional specialization (regional specialization index and inter-regional specialization index) and industrial agglomeration (industrial concentration and industrial relative concentration) three typical industrial integration The characteristic phenomena in the process of structural change are comprehensively investigated. In order to understand the financial crisis after the Yangtze River economic belt industrial structure changes. Then, through the rationalization of the industrial structure (the transformed Tyr index, the ratio of the output value of the high-tech industry to the industry) and the high efficiency (the cost-cost profit margin and the contribution rate of the total assets of the industrial enterprise) To evaluate the effect of industrial structure change in the Yangtze economic belt. Finally, the generalized moment estimation model of the first order difference panel is constructed by using the relationship between the rational, advanced and efficient indexes and the economic growth rate, and the corresponding policy suggestions are given according to the results of the model calculation. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, the level of regional specialization and the level of high efficiency of industrial structure in the industrial zone of the Yangtze River Economic Belt continued to rise before 2011, but with the economic growth rate beginning to decline after 2011, The level of regional specialization has declined slightly, and the level of high efficiency of the industrial structure has dropped rapidly. The local governments have rushed to introduce high-tech industries and local protectionism. While promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze Economic Belt, the level of industrial agglomeration continues to decrease, and technology-intensive industries are compared to other industries. The range of comparative advantage is the smallest. 3. The rationalization level of industrial structure is continuously improved, and the effect of industrial structure change of provinces and cities is intensified. Shanghai, in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, was the first to emerge from the impact of the financial crisis. The industrial structure was in the process of rationalization at a higher level, while Yunnan and other places in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River were in the middle of a lower-level rationalization process. In the period 2008-2015, The rationalization, high level and high efficiency of industrial structure all have influence on the economic growth, but the concrete performance is different. The inhibitory effect of rationalization and higher level on economic growth appears when the economic growth rate is high, but when the economic growth rate is low, the effect of high grade is more obvious, and the effect of high efficiency is just the opposite.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F427

【参考文献】