财政政策对产业结构优化的非线性效应

发布时间：2018-05-02 05:29

本文选题：非线性效应 + 财政政策　；参考：《财经科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文构建了带有时变转换概率的马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,并应用该模型研究了我国财政政策对产业结构优化升级的动态性影响。研究结果发现:(1)在经济衰退区制内,以增加财政支出为主要操作工具、减少税收为辅的宽松型财政政策,结合降低投资性支出占比、提高科技支出占比、降低营业税和增值税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(2)在经济高涨区制内,以增加税收为主要操作工具、减少财政支出为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高科技支出占比和教育支出占比、提高增值税占比和所得税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(3)在经济平稳区制内,以减少财政支出为主要操作工具、增加税收为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高教育支出占比和一般公共服务支出占比、提高增值税占比和消费税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a Markov region transformation vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probability is constructed, and the dynamic effect of fiscal policy on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China is studied by using the model. The research results show that in the economic recession zone system, a loose fiscal policy with increasing fiscal expenditure as the main operating tool and reducing taxes as a supplement, combining with reducing the proportion of investment expenditure, increasing the proportion of science and technology expenditure, A combination of fiscal policies to reduce the proportion of business tax and value-added tax is more conducive to optimizing the industrial structure. It is more conducive to a tight fiscal policy with tax increase as the main operating tool and fiscal expenditure reduced as a supplement in the system of high economic areas. The combination of increasing the proportion of expenditure on science and technology and the proportion of expenditure on education, increasing the proportion of value-added tax and the proportion of income tax, is more conducive to the optimization of industrial structure within the system of economic stability, with the reduction of fiscal expenditure as the main operating tool. It is more advantageous to optimize the industrial structure by increasing the fiscal policy of retrenchment, combining with the proportion of education expenditure and general public service expenditure, and increasing the proportion of value-added tax and consumption tax.
【作者单位】：河北金融学院金融创新与风险管理研究中心;
【基金】：2017年河北金融学院第一批重点科研基金“一带一路战略下助推河北省优势产能走出去的财税保障机制构建”(JY2017ZB05) 2017年河北省科技金融协同创新中心开放基金项目“新常态下促进河北省科技金融产业三融合模式分析”(STFCI C201702) 2016年河北金融学院科研基金重点项目及省级科研平台招标项目“河北省扶贫开发项目PPP模式创新研究”(JY2016ZB32)
【分类号】：F121.3;F810.2

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