长江经济带产业发展与能耗的脱钩分析及能耗水平预测

发布时间：2018-05-28 02:06

本文选题：长江经济带 + 产业发展　；参考：《生态经济》2017年02期

【摘要】：基于2006-2012年数据,利用Tapio脱钩模型和情景分析法实证研究了长江经济带产业发展与能耗的脱钩关系,并预测了不同情景下2020年能耗水平。结果表明:(1)长江经济带产业发展与能耗为弱脱钩,其中三大产业绝大多数年份均为弱脱钩,一、三产业个别年份为扩张耦合,9省市也基本均为弱脱钩,江西和四川个别年份为扩张耦合;(2)三种情景中节能情景和强化节能情景下长江经济带能在降低能耗的同时,促进产业发展,达到强脱钩,实现长江经济带成功转型升级,且三种情景下产值效应是能耗增加的主要因素,结构效应对能耗影响不大,其在基准情景和节能情景下促进了能耗增加,在强化节能情景下降低了能耗,而能源强度效应是降低能耗的关键因素。
[Abstract]:Based on the data from 2006 to 2012, using Tapio decoupling model and scenario analysis, this paper empirically studies the decoupling relationship between industrial development and energy consumption in the Yangtze Economic Belt, and forecasts the energy consumption level in 2020 under different scenarios. The results show that the industrial development and energy consumption of the Yangtze River economic belt are weak decoupling, and most of the three major industries are weak decoupling in most years. In the three scenarios of energy saving and strengthening energy saving, the Yangtze River economic belt can reduce energy consumption, promote industry development, achieve strong decoupling, and realize the successful transformation and upgrading of the Yangtze River economic belt. The output value effect is the main factor of energy consumption increase in three scenarios. The structure effect has little effect on energy consumption. It promotes the increase of energy consumption under the standard scenario and the energy saving scenario, and reduces the energy consumption under the enhanced energy saving scenario. Energy intensity effect is the key factor to reduce energy consumption.
【作者单位】：南昌工程学院经济贸易学院;
【基金】：全国统计科学研究项目(2015LZ58) 江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ151119) 江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ1551)
【分类号】：F127

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