服务贸易出口复杂度对我国产业升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 19:13

本文选题：服务贸易 + 出口复杂度　；参考：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,随着服务经济的迅速崛起,服务业与服务贸易成为在世界经济处于危机后调整、恢复阶段的发展引擎。世界经济服务化明显,农业、制造业与服务业之间不断渗透融合,同时,服务业跨界化、制造业服务化趋势深入发展,与此同时,信息技术的不断发展进一步使得服务贸易的组织形式、商业模式、交易方式、交易对象等都在发生深刻变革,对产业结构升级有着重大作用。对于我国而言,正处在经济转型发展的关键时期,因此,本文以服务贸易出口复杂度为视角,研究其是否能够影响我国产业升级具有一定的意义。服务贸易出口复杂度的提升,说明了出口质量的提高,并且能够在一定程度上反映服务业的技术水平及其国际分工地位,继而服务贸易出口复杂度可以通过服务业的技术进步和要素转移来间接的促进产业升级,本文首先从理论上分析服务贸易出口复杂度能够影响产业升级,再通过ADF检验、协整分析和误差修正模型进行实证检验,发现不管是长期还是短期影响,服务贸易出口复杂度都能够积极影响我国产业升级。本文分为以下几部分:第一部分,理清本文研究思路,明确研究目标,从整体上把握本文研究方向,构建论文整体框架。第二部分,通过对服务贸易出口复杂度与产业升级的一般分析,从理论上研究服务贸易出口复杂度是否对产业升级构成影响。第三部分,通过分析服务贸易出口复杂度的现状,发现虽然出口复杂度有所提升,但是仍然存在出口数量与质量不匹配的问题,同时发现出口规模小、附加值低、逆差严重也是我国服务贸易出口存在的主要问题。第四部分,对相关数据运用ADF检验、协整分析、误差修正模型等计量方法进行服务贸易出口复杂度对我国产业升级影响的实证检验,计量结果显示服务贸易出口复杂度对我国产业升级存在积极地影响,对于控制变量而言,研发投入、外商直接投资对我国产业升级存在积极地影响,人力资本虽然对产业升级没有积极影响,但是人力资本却与产业升级密切相关。这个实证结果为政策制定者提供了依据。最后,在理论研究与实证检验的基础上,对如何提升我国服务贸易出口复杂度和产业升级提出相应的政策建议。结合我国国情,在有限的资源条件下,通过优化服务贸易的出口结构、优化人力资本配置、加大研发投入、适当引入外商直接投资,提升我国服务贸易出口复杂度,进而推动我国产业结构优化升级。
[Abstract]:At present, with the rapid rise of the service economy, service industry and service trade have become the development engine of the adjustment and recovery stage of the world economy after the crisis. The world economy is becoming more and more service-oriented, and the integration of agriculture, manufacturing industry and service industry is constantly permeating. At the same time, the service industry is crossing the border, and the trend of service-oriented manufacturing industry is deepening. At the same time, With the continuous development of information technology, the organization, business model, transaction mode and trading object of service trade are undergoing profound changes, which plays an important role in upgrading the industrial structure. For our country, it is in the key period of economic transformation and development. Therefore, it is meaningful for this paper to study whether it can affect the industrial upgrading of our country from the perspective of the complexity of export of service trade. The increasing complexity of the export of service trade shows the improvement of export quality, and to some extent, it can reflect the technical level of the service industry and its position in international division of labor. Then the complexity of the export of service trade can indirectly promote the industrial upgrading through the technological progress and factor transfer of the service industry. Firstly, this paper analyzes theoretically that the complexity of the export of service trade can affect the industrial upgrading, and then passes the ADF test. Cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to test, it is found that both long-term and short-term effects, export complexity of service trade can positively affect China's industrial upgrading. This paper is divided into the following parts: the first part, clear the research ideas, clear research objectives, from the overall grasp of the direction of this study, build the overall framework of the paper. In the second part, through the general analysis of the complexity of export of service trade and the upgrading of industry, the author studies theoretically whether the complexity of export of trade in services has an effect on the upgrading of industry. In the third part, by analyzing the current situation of the complexity of the export of trade in services, we find that although the complexity of the export has increased, there is still the problem that the quantity and quality of the export are not matched. At the same time, it is found that the export scale is small and the added value is low. The serious deficit is also the main problem of our country's service trade export. In the fourth part, we use ADF test, cointegration analysis, error correction model and other measurement methods to test the impact of export complexity of service trade on China's industrial upgrading. The measurement results show that the complexity of export of service trade has a positive impact on China's industrial upgrading. For control variables, R & D investment and foreign direct investment have a positive impact on China's industrial upgrading. Although human capital has no positive effect on industrial upgrading, human capital is closely related to industrial upgrading. This empirical result provides a basis for policy makers. Finally, on the basis of theoretical research and empirical test, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on how to improve the complexity of China's export of service trade and industrial upgrading. According to the situation of our country, under the condition of limited resources, by optimizing the export structure of service trade, optimizing human capital allocation, increasing R & D investment, introducing foreign direct investment appropriately, increasing the complexity of China's export of service trade, And then promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;F752.62

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