碳排放配额约束下关键产业发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 18:38

本文选题：关键产业 + 碳排放预测　；参考：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球能源消费量急剧攀升的今天,环境污染、温室效应及能源短缺等现象也日益严峻。二氧化碳的排放是导致气候问题的主要原因,我国在节能减排方面面临很大的压力。中国作为当前世界最大的发展中国家,目前正处于经济增长速度换挡期、结构调整阵痛期、前期刺激政策消化期的“三期叠加”,加快转变经济发展方式和调整经济结构刻不容缓。碳排放量升高主要是由工业行业导致的,而关键产业又是工业中最具影响力的行业,所以本文对关键产业的碳排放进行研究。论文首先界定了关键产业的内涵;其次,借鉴灰色关联分析理论,从碳排放量和行业产值视角甄别出论文的研究对象——关键产业,并基于GM(1,1)模型预测出各关键产业2015-2020年碳排放量;然后依据“历史排放量”和“GDP”原则,利用“历史排放偏好”碳排放配额方案,对每个关键产业2020年碳排放量进行配额分配,发现煤炭开采及洗选业、黑色金属冶炼及加工业和电力热力生产及供应业所面临较大的减排压力,定义其为“高压”关键产业;再次,基于STIRPAT模型分析“高压”关键产业碳排放量大的主要原因,发现能源强度、能源结构和行业产值是碳排放量的影响因素。最后根据碳排放影响因素能源消费强度和能源结构的贡献度,设置2015-2025年“高压”关键产业的两种经济发展情景:低碳情景和超低碳情景。通过情景分析发现关键产业的碳排放量会出现倒U型增长,据之建议煤炭开采及洗选业及洗选业的经济发展路径应介于低碳情景和超低碳情景之间;黑色金属冶炼及加工业适合超低碳的经济发展路径;电力热力生产及供应业应选择低碳情景所设定的发展路径,而减排压力小的关键产业2015-2020年应紧跟国家政策,保持“新常态”的经济模式发展。研究结论对我国重污染行业未来节能减排政策的制定提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, global energy consumption is rising sharply, environmental pollution, Greenhouse Effect and energy shortage are also becoming more and more serious. Carbon dioxide emission is the main cause of climate problems. China faces great pressure in energy saving and emission reduction. As the largest developing country in the world at present, China is currently in the period of shifting economic growth rate, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the "three phases superposition" of the previous period of digestion of stimulus policies. It is urgent to speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development and readjust the economic structure. The increase of carbon emissions is mainly caused by the industrial industry, and the key industry is the most influential industry, so this paper studies the carbon emissions of the key industries. Firstly, this paper defines the connotation of key industries; secondly, using the grey relational analysis theory for reference, the paper identifies the key industries from the perspective of carbon emissions and industry output value. Then, according to the principle of "historical emission" and "GDP", the carbon emission quota scheme of "historical emission preference" is used to allocate the carbon emissions of each key industry in 2020. It is found that the coal mining and washing industry, the ferrous metal smelting and processing industry and the electric power thermal production and supply industry are faced with greater pressure of emission reduction, which is defined as the "high pressure" key industry. Thirdly, Based on the STIRPAT model, the main reasons for the large carbon emissions from the key industries of "high pressure" are analyzed. It is found that the energy intensity, energy structure and industry output value are the influencing factors of the carbon emissions. Finally, according to the energy consumption intensity and the contribution degree of energy structure, two kinds of economic development scenarios of "high pressure" key industries in 2015-2025 are set up: low carbon scenario and ultra low carbon scenario. Through the scenario analysis, it is found that the carbon emission of key industries will appear inverted U type growth, according to the suggestion that the economic development path of coal mining and washing industry should be between low carbon scenario and ultra low carbon scenario; The ferrous metal smelting and processing industry is suitable for ultra-low-carbon economic development; the electric power thermal production and supply industry should choose the development path set out in the low-carbon scenario, and the key industries with low emission reduction pressure should closely follow the national policy in 2015-2020. Maintain the development of the "new normal" economic model. The conclusions provide theoretical basis for the formulation of energy saving and emission reduction policy in heavy pollution industry.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F127

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