我国产业结构优化对区域经济收敛影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 19:32

本文选题：产业结构优化 + 区域经济收敛　；参考：《太原理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：区域经济的协调发展不仅会影响人民的生活质量,更是直接关系国家经济前景的重要发展战略。我国地域辽阔,纵向横向区域广袤,在多年的经济发展演变过程中,各区域经济没能得到均衡发展,出现了地区差距日益扩大的现象,而区域经济发展差距的动态变化(收敛情况)很大程度上与地区经济增长速度有关。同时,产业结构作为人类活动作用于宏观经济的直接表现,产业结构的协调与否能够影响该地区经济发展速度及发展潜力,所以,从产业结构优化角度研究区域经济收敛问题对于改善不同区域经济发展状况具有重要的现实意义。本文在梳理已有理论的基础上,将产业结构优化拆解为产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化和产业结构可持续化三个组成部分,并从以上三个角度探析产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化和产业结构可持续化对区域经济收敛的影响机理,同时本文利用空间相关分析法和绝对收敛分析法探究了中国省域经济的空间布局及发展趋势。在此基础上,以2001-2015年我国31个省域层面相关变量的面板数据为研究样本,选取经济开放水平作为门槛变量,选取财政支出、外商直接投资、固定资产投资和人力资本作为控制变量,依据相关理论模型构建出产业结构优化对区域经济收敛影响的条件收敛门槛模型。从全国层面和三大区域层面分别实证检验我国产业结构优化对区域经济收敛的门槛效应。实证研究得出的结论包括以下几个方面:第一,以经济开放水平为门槛变量,我国全国省域层面上存在着条件收敛,产业结构优化对区域经济收敛存在显著的双门槛效应,门槛值分别为6.8618和8.4069,当经济开放水平分别跨过两个门槛值时,产业结构优化对区域经济收敛的影响先是从负向作用变为正向作用,然后逐步加强;第二,从三大区域层面来看,我国东部、西部区域都存在着条件收敛,而中部区域未出现收敛态势,同时三大区域均证实存在经济开放水平单门槛效应;第三,从控制变量角度来说,人力资本对三大区域经济均起到了显著的促进作用,其他变量对三大区域经济收敛的影响不甚相同。最后针对上述研究结果,本文提出了积极推进产业结构调整,加强产业结构调整优化对区域经济收敛影响的促进作用,加深对外开放程度,发挥区域间经济联动作用,推动区域经济协同发展,增加人力资本投资,因地制宜采用不同的财政政策等对策建议。
[Abstract]:The coordinated development of regional economy will not only affect the quality of life of the people, but also directly affect the national economic prospects of an important development strategy. China has a vast territory and a wide vertical horizontal region. In the process of economic development and evolution for many years, the regional economy has not been developed in a balanced way, and the regional gap has been widening day by day. The dynamic change (convergence) of the regional economic development gap is largely related to the regional economic growth rate. At the same time, the industrial structure, as the direct performance of human activities in the macro-economy, the coordination of the industrial structure can affect the economic development speed and development potential of the region, so, It is of great practical significance to study the convergence of regional economy from the angle of industrial structure optimization in order to improve the economic development of different regions. On the basis of combing the existing theories, this paper divides the industrial structure optimization into three parts: the rationalization of the industrial structure, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the sustainability of the industrial structure, and analyzes the rationalization of the industrial structure from the above three angles. The influence mechanism of industrial structure advanced and industry structure sustainable on the regional economic convergence is discussed in this paper. At the same time, the spatial distribution and development trend of China's provincial economy are explored by using spatial correlation analysis and absolute convergence analysis. On this basis, taking the panel data of 31 provincial variables in China from 2001 to 2015 as the research sample, selecting the level of economic openness as the threshold variable, selecting fiscal expenditure, foreign direct investment, Fixed assets investment and human capital as control variables, according to the relevant theoretical model to construct the industrial structure optimization on the regional economic convergence of the conditional convergence threshold model. The threshold effect of industrial structure optimization on regional economic convergence is tested from the national level and three regional levels. The conclusions of the empirical study include the following: first, taking the economic opening level as the threshold variable, there is conditional convergence at the provincial level in China, and the industrial structure optimization has a significant double-threshold effect on the regional economic convergence. The threshold values are 6.8618 and 8.4069 respectively. When the economic opening level crosses the two thresholds, the impact of industrial structure optimization on regional economic convergence changes from negative to positive effects, and then strengthens gradually. Second, from the three regional levels, In the eastern and western regions of China, there is conditional convergence, but there is no convergence trend in the central region. Meanwhile, the three regions have confirmed the existence of the single threshold effect of economic opening level. Thirdly, from the perspective of control variables, Human capital plays a significant role in promoting the three regional economies, while the other variables have different effects on the convergence of the three regional economies. Finally, in view of the above research results, this paper puts forward to actively promote the industrial structure adjustment, strengthen the promoting effect of the industrial structure adjustment optimization on the regional economic convergence, deepen the degree of opening to the outside world, and give play to the role of interregional economic linkage. Promoting the coordinated development of regional economy, increasing the investment of human capital, adopting different fiscal policies according to local conditions and so on.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F121.3

【参考文献】