我国对外直接投资对国内产业结构调整作用的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 05:52

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 产业结构　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在国际经济环境深刻变革下,我国经济面临内外部的双重压力,产业结构亟待转型升级以获取更多增长动力。而“走出去”战略下企业对外直接投资的规模化涌动在很大程度上担负着促进国内产业结构升级的重任,尤其在2013年以来的“一带一路”战略背景下,以产能和装备合作方式开展的对外直接投资被赋予了调节国内产业结构的更高使命。在此背景下,本文试图探明我国对外直接投资的实践是否存在产业结构调整效应以及调整作用大小如何。本文首先整理汇总了对外直接投资产生母国产业结构升级影响的各种影响机制,作为后文分析的理论依据。其次,本文梳理了我国对外直接投资和产业结构动态调整的几个发展阶段,并从两个层面的分析得出影响作用的存在性:一是对比发现我国对外直接投资的规模化涌动与产业结构高度化和合理化变动的方向和节奏存在一致性;二是在对外直接投资发展过程中,各个阶段不同类型对外直接投资的大量涌动产生了相应的产业结构中间指标的变动,这些中间指标的调整又是产业结构升级的先行条件。然而,进一步的数据观察分析也发现,对比美国和日本对外直接投资的历史经验,现阶段我国对外直接投资仍存在着总体规模偏小、投资结构不完善等问题,由此可能使得目前为止我国对外直接投资的实践对产业结构升级的影响效应大打折扣。最后,考虑到产业结构发展本身具有惯性,且由于产业结构对对外直接投资可能存在反作用而造成两者之间存在双向影响,本文根据2003-2014年23个省份的省际面板数据构造了产业结构高度化和合理化的动态面板模型,并采用系统广义矩估计(System GMM)的方法对模型进行估计,得出的结论是我国对外直接投资对国内产业结构高度化和合理化都存在一定影响,对外直接投资对产业结构高度化的影响为正但影响程度较小,而对产业结构合理化的影响却为负,至此,进一步明确,由于存在投资绩效小和结构不完善等问题,我国对外直接投资的实践尚未能对产业结构调整发挥有力的正面影响,在此基础上,从全局和针对不同类型对外直接投资两个层面提出了政策建议,以期待通过进一步扩大对外直接投资规模,提高对外投资绩效,并立足于“一带一路”和国际产能合作的战略要求调整对外直接投资结构,最终真正实现对外直接投资对国内产业结构升级的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Under the profound transformation of the international economic environment, China's economy is facing the double pressure of internal and external, and the industrial structure needs to be transformed and upgraded urgently to obtain more growth power. However, under the strategy of "going out", the scale of foreign direct investment of enterprises is to a large extent shouldering the important task of promoting the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, especially in the background of "Belt and Road" strategy since 2013. OFDI through capacity and equipment cooperation has been given a higher mission to regulate the domestic industrial structure. Under this background, this paper tries to find out whether there exists the effect of industrial structure adjustment in China's foreign direct investment (FDI) practice and how large the adjustment effect is. Firstly, this paper summarizes the influence mechanism of FDI on the upgrading of the home country's industrial structure, which serves as the theoretical basis for the later analysis. Secondly, this paper reviews several stages of development of China's foreign direct investment and dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. And from the analysis of two levels, the existence of the impact role: first, the contrast found that the scale of foreign direct investment in China and the industrial structure of higher and rationalization of the direction and pace of change there is consistency; Second, in the process of the development of foreign direct investment, a large number of different types of foreign direct investment in various stages have produced the corresponding changes in the intermediate indicators of industrial structure, and the adjustment of these intermediate indicators is the leading condition for upgrading the industrial structure. However, further data observation and analysis also found that compared with the historical experience of the United States and Japan, China's foreign direct investment still has some problems, such as the overall scale is small, the investment structure is not perfect, and so on. So far, the effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure may be greatly reduced. Finally, considering the inertia of industrial structure itself and the two-way impact of industrial structure on FDI, Based on the inter-provincial panel data of 23 provinces from 2003 to 2014, a dynamic panel model of industrial structure elevation and rationalization is constructed in this paper, and the system GMM method is used to estimate the model. The conclusion is that China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has a certain impact on the upgrading and rationalization of the domestic industrial structure, and the impact of FDI on the industrial structure is positive, but the degree of influence is small. However, the impact on the rationalization of industrial structure is negative. At this point, it is further clear that because of the problems of low investment performance and imperfect structure, the practice of foreign direct investment in China has not been able to exert a positive impact on the adjustment of industrial structure. On this basis, policy recommendations are put forward from the overall situation and two levels of different types of FDI, in order to improve the performance of OFDI through further expanding the scale of OFDI. Based on the strategy of "Belt and Road" and international production capacity cooperation, it is necessary to adjust the structure of foreign direct investment, and finally realize the promotion effect of foreign direct investment on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F121.3

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