吉林省现代农业产业体系影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 17:36

本文选题：农业产业体系 + 多元回归　；参考：《吉林农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国社会主义经济建设取得了举世瞩目的荣耀,农业作为第一产业在国民经济中占有重要地位。工业化、城镇化进程的不断加快,传统农业技术水平滞后,农业发展面临难题,这就急需传统农业向现代农业转变。现代农业发展的核心就是建立完整的现代农业产业体系,通过农业生产、加工、流通等方面相互支撑、相互衔接,来发展现代农业、升级农产品加工业、创新农产品流通业,加快形成结构优化、产业升级、一二三产业融合的现代农业产业体系。现代农业产业体系是发展现代农业、提高农业产出水平、增强农业国际竞争力的迫切需求,因此,研究现代农业产业体系意义深远。吉林省是农业大省,也是主要的粮食主产区,其农业的发展对整个中国的发展至关重要。但近年来,吉林省农业的发展面临很多难题。粮食产量过剩、农业产业结构不合理、科技水平较低等一系列问题,严重制约吉林省农业的发展。若要大力发展吉林省农业,就应该构建合理的、符合吉林省省情的现代农业产业体系。因此,研究吉林省现代农业产业体系影响因素具有现实意义。本篇论文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合,首先采用农产品加工业产值占农业总产值的比重、畜牧业产值占农业总产值的比重、农业服务业产值占农业总产值的比重和家庭收入中非农收入比重等分析吉林省现代农业产业体系的发展现状。其次,从定性角度分析现代农业产业体系的影响因素:农业基础设施建设、农业产业主体、农业财政和信贷、农业技术创新和推广及政府政策。从定量角度建立多元线性回归模型,以现代农业产业体系为自变量,以农村道路公里数、农民专业合作社数量、农业贷款额、农业财政支农比重、农业固定资产投资和二三产业占GDP比重作为因变量,分析这些因素对现代农业产业体系的影响程度。结果表明:农村道路公里数、农民专业合作社数量、农业贷款额、农业财政支农比重、农业固定资产投资和二三产业占GDP比重与现代农业产业体系都呈正相关关系,说明这些影响因素的提高能加速现代农业产业体系的发展,农村道路公里数、农民专业合作社数量、农业贷款额、农业财政支农比重、农业固定资产投资和二三产业占GDP比重每增加一个单位,现代农业产业体系分别提高0.0445、0.122、0.0509、0.4127、0.0384、1.9538。最后,据此提出加快发展现代农业产业体系的建议:加强政府对农业基础设施的投入、培育现代农业产业体系的新主体、完善农业技术创新和推广机制、加大财政和信贷支持农业发展的力度。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China's socialist economic construction has gained worldwide attention. Agriculture, as the primary industry, plays an important role in the national economy. The process of industrialization and urbanization is speeding up, the level of traditional agricultural technology is lagging behind, and the development of agriculture is faced with difficult problems, which is in urgent need of transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. The core of the development of modern agriculture is to establish a complete modern agricultural industrial system, to develop modern agriculture, upgrade the processing industry of agricultural products, and innovate the circulation of agricultural products by supporting and connecting each other in agricultural production, processing, circulation, and so on. Speed up the formation of structural optimization, industrial upgrading, the integration of two and three industries of modern agricultural industry system. The modern agricultural industrial system is the urgent need to develop modern agriculture, improve agricultural output level and enhance the international competitiveness of agriculture. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to study the modern agricultural industrial system. Jilin Province is a major agricultural province and a major grain producing area. The development of its agriculture is of great importance to the development of the whole China. But in recent years, Jilin province agriculture development faces many difficult problems. A series of problems, such as surplus grain production, unreasonable agricultural industrial structure and low level of science and technology, seriously restrict the development of agriculture in Jilin Province. If we want to develop agriculture in Jilin Province, we should construct a reasonable and modern agricultural industrial system in accordance with the situation of Jilin Province. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the influencing factors of modern agricultural industrial system in Jilin Province. This paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. Firstly, the proportion of agricultural products processing industry output value to total agricultural output value and animal husbandry output value to agricultural output value are adopted. The proportion of agricultural service output value in agricultural output value and the proportion of non-agricultural income in household income are analyzed. The present situation of the development of modern agricultural industry system in Jilin Province is analyzed. Secondly, it analyzes the influencing factors of modern agricultural industrial system from a qualitative perspective: agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural industry main body, agricultural finance and credit, agricultural technology innovation and extension, and government policy. The multivariate linear regression model is established from the quantitative point of view, taking the modern agricultural industrial system as the independent variable, taking the number of kilometers of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, etc. The fixed assets investment and the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries to GDP as dependent variables are analyzed to analyze the influence of these factors on the modern agricultural industrial system. The results show that the number of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, the proportion of agricultural fixed assets investment and the share of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP are all positively correlated with the modern agricultural industrial system. It shows that the improvement of these influencing factors can accelerate the development of modern agricultural industrial system, the number of kilometers of rural roads, the number of farmers' specialized cooperatives, the amount of agricultural loans, the proportion of agricultural finance supporting agriculture, If the proportion of agricultural fixed assets investment and secondary and tertiary industries in GDP increases by one unit, the modern agricultural industrial system will be increased by 0.0445U 0.122U 0.0509N 0.4127N 0.0384n 1.9538 respectively. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for speeding up the development of modern agricultural industrial system: strengthening the government's investment in agricultural infrastructure, cultivating the new main body of modern agricultural industrial system, and perfecting the agricultural technology innovation and extension mechanism. We will increase financial and credit support for agricultural development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F327

【参考文献】