产业蜕变测度与应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 07:54

本文选题：蜕变机理 + 蜕变测度指标　；参考：《山东科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：产业蜕变作为一个客观存在的规律,是在每一个产业的成长中一定要经历的过程,是对产业逐渐实现由数量上的增减变化到发生根本性变化的发展过程的客观呈现,它可以被看作演化着的复杂系统,并有其自身的内在发展机理,但目前研究中缺乏对这一规律的定量分析,导致对产业发展规律及方向未能形成清晰的认识以及有效的把控。因此,本文基于发展的观点,依据产业蜕变指标的动态变化性,运用BP神经网络模型对产业蜕变程度及阶段进行测度,在研究过程中主要形成以下观点及内容:本研究的开始是在以产业生命周期理论、产业蜕变理论为基础的前提下,对产业、企业、产品蜕变的规律与核心关系采用定性与定量相结合的方法进行分析,明晰产业蜕变内在机理,并对产业蜕变影响因素进行阐述,为产业蜕变测度指标的选取以及模型构建奠定基础;其次,通过对以往研究中产业相关测度指标的归结,根据指标的基本选取准则与相关数据的可操作特性,并运用SPSS21.0对指标进行筛选,从而构建测度指标体系,这不仅能够帮助减少指标冗余,还能尽可能排除测度模型输入神经元数据间的关联属性。在此基础上,采用MATLAB 7.6构建的BP神经网络产业蜕变测度模型,用于对产业蜕变程度指数进行测度;然后,以我国计算机制造产业1996-2015年的指标数据作为训练样本数据检验该测度模型,训练达标后通过SIM函数仿真得到计算机蜕变程度指数,通过该指数的变化可以发现计算机制造产业蜕变过程波动性很强,这与其技术导向、更新换代快的特点有关;最后,根据产业蜕变指数测度结果,及产业蜕变阶段划分定性依据,运用ArcGIS10.1软件中的自然断点法对我国计算机制造产业1996-2015年所处蜕变周期阶段进行分析与划分,并通过对产业所处阶段的合理判定,发现产业转型的迫切性,并基于以上对该产业蜕变过程及现状的分析,提出产业转型的策略。此外,根据产业特点与性质调整产业蜕变测度指标体系,本文提出的测度方法也可以实现对其他产业蜕变程度的测度,并可根据测度结果,对产业进一步地发展与调整提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:As an objective law of existence, industrial transformation is a process that must be experienced in the growth of every industry. It is an objective presentation of the gradual realization of the development process of industry from quantity increase or decrease to fundamental change. It can be regarded as an evolving complex system, and has its own internal development mechanism. However, there is a lack of quantitative analysis of this law in current research, which leads to the lack of a clear understanding and effective control of the law and direction of industrial development. Therefore, based on the viewpoint of development and the dynamic change of the index of industrial transformation, this paper uses BP neural network model to measure the degree and stage of industrial transformation. In the course of the research, the following viewpoints and contents are formed: the beginning of this study is based on the theory of industry life cycle, the theory of industrial transformation, The law and core relationship of product transformation are analyzed by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, and the internal mechanism of industrial transformation is clarified, and the influencing factors of industrial disintegration are expounded. It lays a foundation for the selection of industry transformation measure index and the establishment of model. Secondly, through the resolution of industry related measure index in previous research, according to the basic selection criteria of indicators and the operational characteristics of relevant data, SPSS21.0 is used to screen the indicators and construct the measurement index system, which can not only help to reduce the redundancy of the indicators, but also exclude the correlation attributes between the input neuron data of the measure model as much as possible. On this basis, the paper uses the BP neural network model constructed by MATLAB 7.6 to measure the degree of industrial disintegration. The index data of China's computer manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2015 are taken as the training sample data to test the measurement model, and the computer degenerate degree index is obtained by SIM function simulation after the training reaches the standard. Through the change of the index, we can find that the change process of computer manufacturing industry is very volatile, which is related to the characteristics of technology orientation and rapid upgrading. Finally, according to the measurement results of industry transformation index, And the qualitative basis of the division of the industrial transformation stage, the natural breakpoint method in ArcGIS10.1 software is used to analyze and divide the transformation cycle stage of China's computer manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2015, and the reasonable judgment of the industry stage is given. The urgency of industrial transformation is found, and the strategy of industrial transformation is put forward based on the above analysis of the process and current situation of industry transformation. In addition, according to the characteristics and nature of the industry, the measurement system can be adjusted to measure the degree of transformation of other industries, and according to the results, the measurement method proposed in this paper can also be used to measure the degree of transformation of other industries. Further development and adjustment of the industry to provide a basis for decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：山东科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F426.67

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