中国汽车产业规模与效益研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 07:27

本文选题：汽车产业 + 规模经济　；参考：《江西财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2014年,中国已经蝉联世界第一大汽车消费市场六年,国内汽车消费超过2300万辆。自改革开放以来,中国汽车产销规模增长迅速,其中,私人汽车的保有量增长最迅速。汽车需求的持续高增长,为汽车产业的发展带来了一个黄金时期。外资企业以合资和合作的方式进入中国市场,各类汽车企业的生产规模扩大,固定资产投资上升以及从业人员规模扩大,盈利能力上升。汽车企业的规模与经济效益的同步提升表现出明显的规模经济特征。规模经济理论和范围经济理论是产业组织中基础的研究课题,汽车产业的规模效率问题是重要的研究课题之一。汽车产业是我国重点扶持的支柱产业之一,其规模经济特征明显。汽车产业是国家重要的支柱产业,具有产业链条长、资金密集程度强、技术含量高的经济特征,对国民经济有极大支撑作用。政府在1994和2004年两度颁布汽车产业政策加以支持,旨在提升汽车企业的生产规模,降低其生产成本,提高其竞争优势。但2014年,中国汽车产业中存在着115家整车制造企业,超过美日欧等发达国家汽车生产企业总和。大量汽车生产工人和生产设备处于低效率的生产经营中,既不能退出市场,又无力改变企业的经营现状。本文通过DEA模型分析研究汽车产业综合技术效率和规模效率,得出相关结论:首先,中国乘用车企业的规模效率和综合技术效率在统计上表现出与产能规模的同向增长,生产规模越大,规模效率和综合技术效率越高。其次,乘用车企业的规模效率和综合技术效率受到市场需求的影响较大,且汽车产业整体的生产力指数的增长同样受到市场需求变化的影响;再次,乘用车企业整体的投入产出比不高,大量汽车企业的生产无效率;最后,对Malmquist生产指数的分析可知,中国汽车产业的主要问题在于管理缺位和对市场的预期不足。本文第一章中通过对相关文献的搜集和整理,了解我国汽车产业的规模经济的研究的主要内容,介绍文章的思路、研究的问题和研究框架。第二章主要是对古典经济学和新古典经济学以及现代企业理论对规模经济的解释。第三章是对我国汽车产业在2003年之后的关于市场和规模的发展状况的介绍,分析中国乘用车的规模经济的现状。第四章对中国汽车市场的规模经济进行初步测度,以生存技术法和最高利润法对汽车企业的最小最优生产规模进行初步测定,2012年中国汽车企业的最小最优生产规模已经达到50万辆。第五章运用规模报酬不变(CCR)和规模报酬可变(BCC)模型以及生产力指数分解的方法,对2007.2012年32家主要乘用车企业的经营效率和规模效率进行计算和排序,分析纯技术效率和规模效率值对乘用车企业经营效率的影响.第六章根据上章相对效率分析得出的结论,提出针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2014, China was the world's largest car consumer market for six years, consuming more than 23 million cars. Since the reform and opening up, the scale of auto production and sales in China has increased rapidly, among which, the ownership of private cars has increased most rapidly. The sustained high growth of automobile demand has brought a golden period for the development of automobile industry. Foreign-funded enterprises entered the Chinese market in the form of joint ventures and cooperation. The production scale of all kinds of automobile enterprises expanded, the fixed assets investment increased, the scale of employees expanded, and the profitability increased. The scale of automobile enterprises and the economic benefits of the simultaneous promotion show obvious characteristics of economies of scale. The theory of scale economy and the theory of scope economy are the basic research topics in industrial organization, and the scale efficiency of automobile industry is one of the important research topics. Automobile industry is one of the pillar industries supported by our country, its scale economy characteristic is obvious. Automobile industry is an important pillar industry of the country, which has the characteristics of long industrial chain, strong capital density and high technology content, which has great support to the national economy. The government issued two auto industry policies in 1994 and 2004 to promote the production scale of automobile enterprises, reduce their production costs and enhance their competitive advantage. But in 2014, there were 115 car manufacturers in China, more than in developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe combined. A large number of automobile production workers and production equipment are in the inefficient production and management, which can neither withdraw from the market nor change the management status quo of the enterprises. In this paper, the comprehensive technical efficiency and scale efficiency of automobile industry are analyzed by DEA model, and the relevant conclusions are drawn: firstly, the scale efficiency and comprehensive technical efficiency of passenger car enterprises in China are increasing in the same direction as the production capacity scale statistically. The larger the production scale, the higher the scale efficiency and comprehensive technical efficiency. Secondly, the scale efficiency and comprehensive technical efficiency of passenger car enterprises are greatly affected by the market demand, and the growth of the overall productivity index of the automobile industry is also affected by the changes of market demand. The input-output ratio of passenger car enterprises is not high, and the production efficiency of a large number of automobile enterprises is not high. Finally, the analysis of Malmquist production index shows that the main problem of China's automobile industry lies in the lack of management and the insufficient expectation of the market. The first chapter of this paper through the collection and collation of relevant documents, understand the main content of the study of the scale economy of China's automobile industry, introduce the ideas of the article, research problems and research framework. The second chapter mainly explains the scale economy of classical economics, neoclassical economics and modern enterprise theory. The third chapter introduces the development of market and scale of China's automobile industry after 2003, and analyzes the present situation of scale economy of passenger cars in China. Chapter four measures the scale economy of China's automobile market. The minimum optimal production scale of automobile enterprises has been preliminarily determined by the survival technology method and the maximum profit method. The minimum optimal production scale of Chinese automobile enterprises has reached 500000 vehicles in 2012. The fifth chapter calculates and sorts the operating efficiency and scale efficiency of 32 major passenger car enterprises in 2007.2012 by using CCR model and variable scale reward (BCC) model and productivity index decomposition method. The effects of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency on the operation efficiency of passenger car enterprises are analyzed. The sixth chapter puts forward some policy suggestions according to the conclusion of the relative efficiency analysis in the previous chapter.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.471

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