贵州省产业结构、就业结构与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 00:16

本文选题：经济增长 + 产业结构　；参考：《贵州民族大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文从国内外研究近况对产业结构、就业结构与经济关系做了一系列认识和了解,进而为研究本课题提供路线,从分析三者的近况,明确贵州省经济是快速增长的,但人均水平上却处于落后地带,产业结构发生本质性的转变,就业结构的演变是符合Petty—Clark Theorem。首先,用Static Panel Data Model分析得到第三产业对贵州省经济贡献最大,“三二一”型是贵州的产业结构型;考虑个体效应因素,进一步采用变系数模型分析发现第一产业对经济的影响日趋下降,第三产业不断上升;动态面板数据模型分析出上期经济数据对当期的影响是第三产业的作用最大。其次,采用产业的就业指标发现,贵州省第一产业蓄存的就业量将注入第二、三产业中,而注入第三产业的概率甚大;从基于ECM的面板数据模型来看各产业就业人数在长期上是显著影响产业产值的。接着,在对贵州省就业结构与经济增长关系分析时,采用Panel Data Vector Auto Regression Model,基于面板向量自回归模型下进行的脉冲响应和方差分解分析,在经济水平高的地区将劳动力投入第二产业会促进经济发展,投入第三产业会出现短期正响应;在经济水平低的地区经济增长会使第三产业就业遭受强冲击,劳动力投入第三产业对经济增长会出现长期性的正向影响。最后,文章结合实证分析的结论提出较为合理的依据性建议。
[Abstract]:This paper makes a series of knowledge and understanding on the relationship between industrial structure, employment structure and economy from the recent research situation at home and abroad, and then provides a route for the study of this subject. From the analysis of the recent situation of the three, it is clear that Guizhou's economy is growing rapidly. But the per capita level is in the backward zone, the industrial structure has the essential transformation, and the evolution of the employment structure is in accord with Petty-Clark Theorem. First of all, with the Static Panel data Model analysis, it is concluded that the tertiary industry contributes the most to the economy of Guizhou Province, and the "3 / 2 1" type is the industrial structure type of Guizhou, considering the factors of individual effect, By using the variable coefficient model, it is found that the influence of the primary industry on the economy is decreasing day by day, and the tertiary industry is on the rise, and the dynamic panel data model shows that the effect of the last economic data on the current period is the most important. Secondly, using the employment index of the industry, it is found that the employment volume of the primary industry in Guizhou Province will be injected into the second and third industries, and the probability of the third industry will be very large. According to the panel data model based on ECM, the employment of each industry has a significant impact on the industrial output in the long run. Then, in the analysis of the relationship between employment structure and economic growth in Guizhou Province, we use Panel data Vector Auto regression Model to analyze the impulse response and variance decomposition based on the panel vector autoregressive model. Putting the labor force into the secondary industry in areas with high economic level will promote economic development, and the investment in the tertiary industry will have a short-term positive response. In areas with low economic level, economic growth will make the employment of the tertiary industry suffer a strong impact. Labor input into the tertiary industry will have a long-term positive impact on economic growth. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：贵州民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;F249.27

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